Good forecast. While you think it might be optimistic is it pessimistic in some areas? With I assume full production and a full quarter from Area 5 and Leatherwoods I think that the grade could be higher than your estimate (which is essentially the same as last quarter). I looked back at a few older reports and your forecast of 1.60 is the same grade they reported for the June 2022 quarter. Surely they are expecting an increase.
You're forecasting recoveries of 76%. Very hard to guesstimate but they do have some ongoing improvements around recoveries being implemented. I assume a lot will depend on if there is talc and sulphur issues. Perhaps Area 5 won't have the same talc issues? June quarter 2022 was 79% and getting back to those levels would give a big kick.
Your production levels are below June quarter. So predicted production, grade and recoveries are all lower than they have achieved in the past. So I think there is a bit of upside in your numbers if MLX really hits their straps with capital works finished and high grade areas in full swing.
MLX Price at posting:
28.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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