The outlook for H2 presented today is very, very cautious.
NZ was soft in H1 but is the smallest segment (excl Thailand) by a long way.
Trade and Specialty Wholsale were strong and will continue to grow at the H1 pace.
Retail was exceptional and will probably back off a little bur Australians will increase their rate of domestic travel in this half, trying to get as much travelling in before winter sets in in July August.
My tip is a H2 NPAT in the 60-65m range giving a full year FY'21 NPAT of at least $$130-135m which is 10% better than the outlook provided. The NPAT in H2 FY'19 was $51.2m so a H2 FY'21 NPAT of $60-$65m is not that much of a stretch given the great momentum in the business.
The result today was excellent overall. The decision to build inventory given supply chain difficulties is very smart. The management team is highly experienced and it shows they undertand all aspects of their industry intimately.
The exciting things to look forward to are $10m of DC savings annually, starting in FY'22 and the team established to look at how EV will impact the business and how BAP can take advantage.
BAP Price at posting:
$7.84 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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