MDR 1.45% 34.0¢ medadvisor limited

Ann: Appendix 4D and Half Yearly Report, page-14

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  1. 4,201 Posts.
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    This has got to be Regal creating volume and selling to themselves to artificially generate a lower VWAP.

    For a block sale I'm sure 'the deal' is done prior to any ASX announcement, so around now would be when price is calculated/negotiated/manipulated.

    There may be a stalemate with Management (or Swinnerton himself) wanting the CR price of 38c.

    Regal: We are allowed to buy and sell as we wish. We're offering volume in the sell queue, but there is no market interest MedAdvisor Management, so our block sale bid is xx cents.

    Management: We know these are your shares. We check the register. Why would anyone want to take out your higher sell orders, when you're just dumping into the bids? MedAdvisor is offering 15.5M at xx cents.

    Regal: We can continue this forever.

    Management: So can we. Your ammo is finite.

    Arguably the business is in a better position with more irons, in more fires than this time last year.

    Regal doesn't have to buy the shares at the sale price, nor does Swinnerton have to sell at their offer.

    The retail shortfall was quickly snapped by other entities at 38c.

    Whilst 33c is below 38c, it's only a drop of ~12%, so the tactics aren't drastic.

    Hopefully after this week, the games taper off and trading patterns return to normal.

    The chart shows a healthy rise in January 2020 and then a fall in February/March/April, with Regal buying 10M in April 2020. Swinnerton's shares would have been shopped around prior to April 2020, so it seems market forces, COVID or Regal took the price back down again. Then another rise in May and June after the sale and then a slow burn which continues today, which coincidentally is just a matter of weeks before escrow being lifted.

    It does seem like death by a thousand paper cuts at the moment and we're hitting every branch on the way down, but my hope/prediction/belief (hope is not an investment strategy), is that things will turn around when we know what's happening with Swinnerton's remaining shares.
    Last edited by futurenow: 16/03/21
 
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