DUB (ASX) Ann: Appendix 4D and Interim Financial Report 31 Dec 2023

Originally posted by tradie130: ↑

Looking more into the reduction in revenue projections down by $7M from $45M to $38M, they say this is due to the misappropriation of deposit funds and a contract dispute. The report stated that interest-earning income was is significantly reduced from around $100K down to only $8K or similar amount, as a result of not having any deposits. So that doesn’t really account too much for the $7M reduction. This would most likely indicate that they had previously overstated their revenue numbers (as they have always done), a bunch of customers have churned and left, or the contract dispute mentioned is quite significant and worth $5M or more. So there may be another big bad debt to go along with the $8M bad debt that was lost previously.

Looking at the $38M projected revenues, it would be great if we could see a picture of revenue related directly to the native DUB product, that is without the direct revenue contributions from the SPEIK, NOTIV and CALLN acquisitions which in total equate to $15M annual revenues as previously reported. Do we have any DUB insiders on this forum who have inside information on the allocation of revenue. This would give us the best indication of the commercial viability of the native DUB product. Because for me $20M or so in revenues attributed to DUB for a company that has been in business for 13 years with that amount of Telco partners doesn't exactly scream "disrupting the call recording industry" does it?

Now the messaging in the GOING CONCERN section is very telling, saying… Without an immediate “material” capital injection and (1) the achievement of cash forecast over the next 12 months (2) the company will not be a going concern, and specific material uncertainty exists (3) that may cast significant doubt about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern.

So let’s consider those points objectively. Point 1: I don’t think a $24M cap raise would qualify as “material” particularly when $15M of the funds raised are going to paying off debts and not operating the business, that is $1M to an accounting firm, $5M to repay AW loan, and $10M owed to ATO/SROs. Point 2: Achievement of their 12-month cash projections. They never, ever, have achieved their revenue projections because cash receipts have never followed or got near the reported projections. Also note that they have only just revised revenue down from $45M to $38M and all the fallout from this mess hasn’t started to hit the books yet. Point 3: regardless of any of the above, there is still material uncertainty that exists which casts significant doubt at to the company being a going concern. So reading this objectively it is telling us that it is most likely that this company will not be a going concern.

Taking into consideration everything in this report, it is highly likely that once they start counting the true operating costs, and the actual revenue (cash receipts) in coming quarters we will see the $45M revenue / $65M operating costs, come way back to something like $35M revenue / $70M operating costs which puts the company way back on the breakeven forecasts.

Expand

$35M rev - $70M opex = -$35M/year or -$2.9M/month, assuming no major loss in customer revenue.

The $24M CR will only give them $5.2M working capital (according to page 39 of the prospectus) so they'll only have a few months before needing more cash.

Reliance on existing revenue assumes there are no further contract disputes, but given the founders' history in sales fraud, the potential for further contract dispute is very real.

This CR gets directors off the hook from current exposure to ATO penalties, and a few months to either offload Dubber or resign from the board to avoid potential further director liabilities.

Dubber has no capital to build further & will never reach self-sustaining profitability.

Dubber is going down.

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Last 3.8¢		Change -0.002(5.00%)		Mkt cap ! $34.18M

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4.0¢	4.0¢	3.8¢	$10.59K	277.4K


Last 3.9¢		Change -0.002 ( 2.50 %)
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4.0¢	4.0¢	3.8¢	253049
Last updated 14.59pm 17/06/2024 ?

Ann: Appendix 4D and Interim Financial Report 31 Dec 2023, page-27

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