Hi @RtwoDtwo, I'm just pondering the numbers in your post & also...

Hi @RtwoDtwo, I'm just pondering the numbers in your post & also the last sentence (regarding other possible explanations for DM's CR timing).

Just having a wild guess here...maybe DM looked at the probability of PL6 success vs PL6 failure & came to the conclusion that the probability of failure (on the very first attempt at 20nm) is still much higher than the probability of success & it was much less crappy to raise at $0.036 (after telling the insto's in Dec'24 about the "Phase 3" development timeline) than having to raise at $0.016 (or less) post PL6 (if it turns out that 4DS have to embark on another root cause analysis journey for unexpected reasons). Obviously if PL6 is a wild success (on the very first attempt at 20nm) we'll all be very happy with the SP improvement.

In your costs equation, you should probably include some numbers for payments to IMEC for work done in 1H 2025.

If I exclude any PL6 success / failure probability considerations from reasons that DM might have had when he pulled the trigger on a totally unexpected CR, then I'm inclined to agree with the second last sentence in your post..."I can't get my head around it..."

Cheers
GW