I thought more or less the opposite. 1H21 was always going to be weak given COVID but it seems pretty clear to me the software business - which these days is where the vast majority of the business' value lies - is about to hit a very nice period over the next few years given:
- Inflection in TCV sales seen in first 7 weeks of 2H21, and that's with COVID still lingering and making sales difficult
- Sales pipeline / backlog that's building will get executed on once miners let go of the purse strings a bit, which they will now with the scary COVID days behind
- Commodity prices ripping, miners behind the curve in tech investment, need to play catch up
Their software biz generates 50% segmental margins, has low churn and long contract duration - it is a very high quality business. With those characteristics you can easily justify a 10x multiple on subscription ARR (many enterprise software businesses which do nothing except lose money trade at multiples much higher), and once COVID clears I think you'll see subscription software ARR very quickly crank from $16M today to $25M+ - at a 10x multiple, a $10M rise in ARR all else equal is $100M of EV uplift, which is meaningful for a business that has an EV of sub $250M.
(20min delay)