AR9 2.60% 7.5¢ archtis limited

"I agree it doesn't mean insto investment will automatically be...

  1. 2,007 Posts.
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    "I agree it doesn't mean insto investment will automatically be directed at archTIS, but I think it does materially increase the chance of institutions investing in archTIS. The simple fact that there are so few listed investment options available domestically (particularly in the small cap space), with the government encouraging investment in this space explicitly at the least means institutions will be turning over rocks in this space."

    improving the chances from say 10% to 15% doesn't change much.

    "The business can only be held responsible for its own actions, and I think the slightly more sophisticated nature of insto investors may look beyond twitter or HC ramping"

    There are far too many unknowns for confidence to be gained yet. 10 POCs that may go nowhere. PoCs that turn into bigger PoCs. All the while don't actually provide ARR, because they are concepts, not contracts. The only ARR has been 80-100k /yr deals with Babcock, bank of Finland, DHL. Like it or not... everything else is conceptual. 3 years of Thales, iSprint, MSFT, NDC edge, NG and now Fujitsu all adding to the mix of concepts that haven't proven much in reality of sales.

    "It sounds to me your biggest issue here is a lack of transparency regarding partnerships and revenue generated from them. I'd be very happy if we were to see this in reports, especially so we as shareholders can identify where growth on an ongoing basis stems from.

    All we can tell is there's $5.2m in deferred revenue, which infers licence based revenue for this FY. I'd also like to know from where this has stemmed.

    There's an assumption that absence of evidence is equivalent to evidence of absence. The numbers testify to the opposite of this, but management needs to identify a better way of communicating that to shareholders than requiring us to extrapolate the data ourselves and number crunch."

    I guess, given the secretive nature of the companies industry it's very conflicting to them and share holders about what to share and what not to share, you can say that this gives an advantage to the ones digging under every rock, but in reality it leads to creating false connections and basing your entire Jenga stack on misconceptions and false links drawn.
    My impressions were the hardware was deferred, and you're right, hard to tell what that means for the revenue going forward. Noone will be more pleased that I to see the ARR shoot up to 6/7m from these deferrals and from new/growing business. At best we can speculate, that's my main point in all of my postings. We are speculating and some passing it off as fact.

    "How much money does it take to recreate a Kojensi-like solution at a massive company, versus adding the tech into their offerings via archTIS at no additional cost to them?

    I think that's ultimately what it comes down to."

    The amount of money going into US DOD and the contracts that it leads to as well as the requirements of solutions future wide, ways in which we don't even understand tell me that the investment made by archtis would be dwarfed by companies potential profits and their current revenues to be able to draw from to create superior products in a much more timely manner, certainly be able to be done quicker than archtis saw their expansion into the US market, then they didn't even launch there by the looks, they launched in Europe... why?

    "The biggest hindrance to the business' share price success has been people overpaying massively in 2020 - if my numbers are approximately correct, at its ATH, people were buying on a 160x Price/Sales multiple"

    I agree, the business was severely overvalued then on a traditional Ben Graham value oriented view. Tech valuations have obviously evolved, and hindsight allows to reflect that those valuations didn't mean expectations, at least now yet. I think investors also underestimated the timelines for the govt to act, because there is still nothing in place to protect our data. Imo it's completely demoralising and demotivating to see how critical something can be to our safety and privacy, yet not one thing has been done to protect citizens.

    i am hopeful that the diversity we have in our customers, POCs, govt and Aus mandated investment gives us at least security in survival and my beliefs that the product works and does what it says it does... in reality that's only 1-3 factors in a multitude of reasons why a business can 1. Be successful, 2. Survive 3. Grow share holder value.

    still we wait, right up until deaths door, every timeline that comes and passes is greeted by a new timeline for inflection. Reality is, the future is unknown and it's speculation upon speculation. That's all that's known imo, even Dan and Kurt must be frustrated at this point with how slow it has been to progress.


 
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