EV is $6.9b by te looks (at current SP)No recovery in wholesale...

EV is $6.9b by te looks (at current SP)
No recovery in wholesale in FY22 according to futures.

MARKET INFORMATION											Company INFORMATION
											Pumice
Share Price		16.93	19.07	24.52	21.16	19.07	15.32	7.18	5.67		Pumice							Bitmap
Market Capitalisation ($m)		11,068	12,867	16,411	13,877	12,507	9,546	4,473	3,533		Pumice
Total Debt ($m)		3,882	3,108	3,346	2,963	2,850	3,108	3,185	3,185		Pumice
Cash & Cash equivalents ($m)		259	252	154	463	115	141	88	88		Pumice
Minority interest / Other ($m)		387	301	293	432	282	239	253	253		Pumice
EV		15,078	16,024	19,896	16,809	15,524	12,752	7,823	6,883		Pumice
											Pumice
INVESTMENT SUMMARY											OPERATIONAL ASSUMPTIONS
A$m		FY15	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22		A$m		FY15	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22
Net profit [reported] ($m)		218	(408)	541	1,582	905	1,007	(2,058)			Electricity portfolio
Net profit [adjusted] ($m)		630	701	804	1,018	1,040	808	537	280		Retail (TWh)		14.9	14.6	13.9	13.8	13.6	13.8	14.6
EPS [reported] (¢)		33.3	(60.5)	80.8	241.2	138.0	161.6	(330.3)			C&I (TWh)		12.8	12.3	11.2	9.8	9.8	10.6	10.2
EPS [adjusted, basic] (¢)		96.4	103.9	120.1	155.2	158.6	129.7	86.2	44.9		Wholesale (TWh)		11.1	12.7	14.6	15.7	15.8	15.9	15.8
EPS Growth (%)			8%	16%	29%	2%	-18%	-34%	-48%		Total electricity sold (TWh)		38.7	39.6	39.7	39.2	39.2	40.3	40.6
PER [adjusted] (x)		17.6	16.3	14.1	10.9	10.7	13.1	19.6	37.7		Electricity Generated		41.0	46.5	45.4	45.5	45.8	45.5	42.7
Dividend (¢)		64	68	91	117	119	98	75	34		Electricity Dispatched		38.2	43.8	43.1	43.1	43.7	43.8	41.1
Payout ratio (%)		66%	65%	76%	75%	75%	76%	87%	75%		Electricity rev (incl pool rev) ($m)		7,622	8,269	9,812	10,793	11,518	10,466	9,320
Dividend Yield (%)		3.8%	3.6%	3.7%	5.5%	6.2%	6.4%	10.4%	5.9%		Electricity margin ($m)		1,144.0	1,215.0	1,471.0	1,907.0	1,989.0	1,796.0	1,573.0
Franking (%)		100%	100%	80%	80%	80%	80%	0%	??		Electricity margin ($/MWh)		29.5	30.7	37.1	48.7	50.8	44.5	38.8
Shares [period-average, basic]		653,725,754	674,712,378	669,300,000	655,825,043	655,825,043	623,138,096	623,033,791	623,033,791
											Electricity margin Retail ($/MWh)		28.7	31.6	34.9	32.8	37.2	36.1	34.1
ENTERPRISE VALUE											Electricity margin Business ($/MWh)		3.3	2.9	3.6	3.7	3.5	5.6	4.4
A$m		FY15	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22		Electricity margin Wholesale ($/MWh)		61.1	56.4	65.0	90.7	91.7	77.6	65.4
Enterprise Value		15,078	16,024	19,896	16,809	15,524	12,752	7,823	6,883		Cost of generation ($/MWh)		34.9	35.5	37.1	43.7	49.1	50.8	47.6
EV/EBITDA		10.0x	9.5x	10.7x	7.5x	6.8x	6.3x	4.7x	5.3x
EV/EBIT		13.4x	13.2x	14.5x	10.1x	9.4x	9.8x	8.2x	9.4x		Gas portfolio
EV/FCF		(13.3x)	12.6x	33.7x	11.1x	22.3x	10.0x	25.0x	13.5x		Retail vol (PJ)		63.0	59.4	58.5	59.9	57.3	58.2	55.9
											C&I vol (PJ)		79.1	73.7	61.6	32.3	16.4	15.8	19.4
CASH FLOW											Wholesale incl internal vol. sold		92.0	101.1	109.7	87.8	93.4	81.5	83.1
A$m		FY15	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22		Gas sold (PJ)		234.1	234.2	229.8	180.0	167.1	155.5	158.4
EBITDA		1,505	1,689	1,853	2,236	2,285	2,026	1,666	1,300		Gas margin ($m)		732.0	753.0	642.0	687.0	661.0	654.0	520.0
Net interest paid		(194)	(172)	(179)	(172)	(151)	(124)	(120)	(120)		Gas margin ($/GJ)		3.1	3.2	2.8	3.8	4.0	4.2	3.3
Tax paid		(147)	(166)	(292)	(159)	(263)	(233)	(114)	(127)
Cashflow related to SI		(142)	(64)	–	–	–	(7)	(122)	–		Gas margin Retail ($/GJ)		4.9	5.6	5.2	4.2	4.3	3.8	4.8
Other/ Working capital movements		22	(101)	(490)	238	(272)	450	(60)	–		Gas margin Business ($/GJ)		0.8	0.8	1.0	1.4	0.9	0.9	0.7
Net Cash from Operating activities		1,044	1,186	892	2,143	1,599	2,112	1,250	1,053		Gas margin Wholesale ($/GJ)		4.2	4.0	2.8	4.9	4.9	5.2	2.9
Capex		(744)	(533)	(503)	(720)	(915)	(714)	(695)	(545)
(Acquisitions)/ Disposals & Other		(1,431)	614	201	91	11	(121)	(242)	–		Average Electricity Customers		2,264	2,255	2,243	2,240	2,233	2,284	2,435
Free cash flow		(1,131)	1,267	590	1,514	695	1,277	313	508		Average Gas Customers		1,462	1,437	1,413	1,408	1,421	1,450	1,512
Debt (paid)/drawn		67	(821)	326	(513)	(264)	94	212	–		EBIT/Cust.		302.2	328.0	374.2	457.5	454.3	349.8	243.0
Dividends paid		(344)	(446)	(517)	(682)	(774)	(719)	(573)	(210)
Other		(2)	1	(16)	–	–	–	–	–		Assumptions
Equity issued/(bought back)		1,203	(8)	(480)	(10)	(5)	(627)	(5)	–		NEM Annual volume weighted ave prices (A$/MWh)
Net cash flow		(207)	(7)	(97)	309	(348)	25	(53)	298		NSW		36	54	88	85	92	79	72	62
											VIC		32	50	70	99	124	84	51	52
DIVISIONAL BREAKDOWN [EBIT]											SA		42	67	123	109	128	73	53	55
A$m		FY15	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22		QLD		61	64	103	75	83	56	66	57
Retail		321	371	335	120	145	95	133
C&I		67	87	100	82	49	73	58			Profit & Loss
Wholesale		1,675	1,828	1,967	2,665	2,757	2,630	2,210			A$m		FY15	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22
Total Energy markets		2,063	2,286	2,403	2,868	2,951	2,798	2,401			Sales Revenue		10,678	11,150	12,584	12,816	13,246	12,160	10,942
Group Operations		(729)	(842)	(814)	(919)	(1,036)	(1,101)	(1,091)			EBITDA		1,505	1,689	1,853	2,236	2,285	2,026	1,666	1,300
New Investments		26	25	17	33	33	18	9			Depn & Amortisation		(379)	(478)	(485)	(567)	(625)	(720)	(707)	(566)
New Energy		2	(12)	9	–	–	–	3			EBIT		1,126	1,211	1,368	1,669	1,660	1,306	959	734
Centrally Manged Expenses		(236)	(246)	(248)	(313)	(288)	(415)	(372)			Net interest		(234)	(222)	(224)	(224)	(193)	(179)	(224)
Group EBIT		1,126	1,211	1,368	1,669	1,660	1,306	959	734		Tax		(262)	(287)	(338)	(428)	(427)	(319)	(199)
											Minority Interest		–	(1)	(2)	–	–	–	1
BALANCE SHEET [Selected Items]											Net Profit [adjusted]		630	701	804	1,018	1,040	808	537	280
A$m		FY15	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22		Abnormal Gain/(Loss) after Tax		(412)	(1,109)	(263)	564	(135)	199	(2,595)
Cash		259	252	154	463	115	141	88			Net Profit [reported]		218	(408)	541	1,582	905	1,007	(2,058)
PPE		7,502	6,482	6,447	6,757	6,588	6,640	6,283
Intangibles		3,266	3,232	3,286	3,271	3,740	3,638	3,302			EBITDA margin (%)		14.1%	15.1%	14.7%	17.4%	17.3%	16.7%	15.2%
Other		4,806	4,638	4,571	4,142	4,378	4,188	5,777			Net Interest Cover [EBIT] (x)		4.8	5.5	6.1	7.5	8.6	7.3	4.3
Total assets		15,833	14,604	14,458	14,633	14,821	14,607	15,450	15,450		Net Debt/EBITDA		2.4	1.7	1.7	1.1	1.2	1.5	1.9
Debt		3,882	3,108	3,346	2,963	2,850	3,108	3,185			ROTA: EBIT/Total Assets (%)		7.1%	8.3%	9.5%	11.4%	11.2%	8.9%	6.2%
Current Liabilities		2,373	2,329	2,731	2,323	2,546	2,388	2,975	2,975		ROE: NPAT/Equity (%)		7.1%	8.6%	10.6%	12.3%	12.3%	10.1%	9.8%
Other liabilities		3,136	3,346	3,538	3,369	3,533	3,527	6,759
Non Current Liabilities		4,645	4,125	4,153	4,009	3,837	4,247	6,969			Du Pont Analysis
Total liabilities		7,018	6,454	6,884	6,332	6,383	6,635	9,944	9,944		A$m		FY15	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22
Equity		8,815	8,150	7,574	8,301	8,438	7,972	5,506	5,506		Net Profit Margin [adjusted]		5.9%	6.3%	6.4%	7.9%	7.9%	6.6%	4.9%
Net debt		3,623	2,856	3,192	2,500	2,735	2,967	3,097			Asset Turnover Ratio		0.67	0.76	0.87	0.88	0.89	0.83	0.71
Net Debt / (Net Debt + Equity) (%)		29.1%	25.9%	29.6%	23.1%	24.5%	27.1%	36.0%			Equity Multiplier		1.80	1.79	1.91	1.76	1.76	1.83	2.81
Cash Conversion		92%	90%	74%	111%	88%	122%	89%			ROE		7.1%	8.6%	10.6%	12.3%	12.3%	10.1%	9.8%
BV per share		13.48	12.08	11.32	12.66	12.87	12.79	8.84			Tax burden		70.6%	71.0%	70.4%	70.4%	70.9%	71.7%	73.0%
NTA per share		8.49	7.29	6.41	7.67	7.16	6.96	3.54			Interest Burden		79.2%	81.7%	83.6%	86.6%	88.4%	86.3%	76.6%
ROE		7.1%	8.6%	10.6%	12.3%	12.3%	10.1%	9.8%	5.1%		Return on Sales		10.5%	10.9%	10.9%	13.0%	12.5%	10.7%	8.8%
ROTA		7.1%	8.3%	9.5%	11.4%	11.2%	8.9%	6.2%	4.8%		Asset Turnover Ratio		0.67	0.76	0.87	0.88	0.89	0.83	0.71
ROCE		8.4%	9.9%	11.7%	13.6%	13.5%	10.7%	7.7%	5.9%		Equity Multiplier		1.80	1.79	1.91	1.76	1.76	1.83	2.81
ROCE		8.4%	9.9%	11.7%	13.6%	13.5%	10.7%	7.7%			ROE		7.1%	8.6%	10.6%	12.3%	12.3%	10.1%	9.7%