AGL (ASX) Ann: Appendix 4E and 2021 Annual Report

Originally posted by Pumice: ↑
EV is $6.9b by te looks (at current SP)
No recovery in wholesale in FY22 according to futures.

MARKET INFORMATION

Company INFORMATION

Pumice

Share Price
16.93 19.07 24.52 21.16 19.07 15.32 7.18 5.67
Pumice

Bitmap

Market Capitalisation ($m)
11,068 12,867 16,411 13,877 12,507 9,546 4,473 3,533
Pumice

Total Debt ($m)
3,882 3,108 3,346 2,963 2,850 3,108 3,185 3,185
Pumice

Cash & Cash equivalents ($m)
259 252 154 463 115 141 88 88
Pumice

Minority interest / Other ($m)
387 301 293 432 282 239 253 253
Pumice

EV
15,078 16,024 19,896 16,809 15,524 12,752 7,823 6,883
Pumice

Pumice

INVESTMENT SUMMARY

OPERATIONAL ASSUMPTIONS

A$m
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
A$m
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Net profit [reported] ($m)
218 (408) 541 1,582 905 1,007 (2,058)

Electricity portfolio

Net profit [adjusted] ($m)
630 701 804 1,018 1,040 808 537 280
Retail (TWh)
14.9 14.6 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.8 14.6
EPS [reported] (¢)
33.3 (60.5) 80.8 241.2 138.0 161.6 (330.3)

C&I (TWh)
12.8 12.3 11.2 9.8 9.8 10.6 10.2
EPS [adjusted, basic] (¢)
96.4 103.9 120.1 155.2 158.6 129.7 86.2 44.9
Wholesale (TWh)
11.1 12.7 14.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.8
EPS Growth (%)

8% 16% 29% 2% -18% -34% -48%
Total electricity sold (TWh)
38.7 39.6 39.7 39.2 39.2 40.3 40.6
PER [adjusted] (x)
17.6 16.3 14.1 10.9 10.7 13.1 19.6 37.7
Electricity Generated
41.0 46.5 45.4 45.5 45.8 45.5 42.7
Dividend (¢)
64 68 91 117 119 98 75 34
Electricity Dispatched
38.2 43.8 43.1 43.1 43.7 43.8 41.1
Payout ratio (%)
66% 65% 76% 75% 75% 76% 87% 75%
Electricity rev (incl pool rev) ($m)
7,622 8,269 9,812 10,793 11,518 10,466 9,320
Dividend Yield (%)
3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 5.5% 6.2% 6.4% 10.4% 5.9%
Electricity margin ($m)
1,144.0 1,215.0 1,471.0 1,907.0 1,989.0 1,796.0 1,573.0
Franking (%)
100% 100% 80% 80% 80% 80% 0% ??
Electricity margin ($/MWh)
29.5 30.7 37.1 48.7 50.8 44.5 38.8
Shares [period-average, basic]
653,725,754 674,712,378 669,300,000 655,825,043 655,825,043 623,138,096 623,033,791 623,033,791

Electricity margin Retail ($/MWh)
28.7 31.6 34.9 32.8 37.2 36.1 34.1
ENTERPRISE VALUE

Electricity margin Business ($/MWh)
3.3 2.9 3.6 3.7 3.5 5.6 4.4
A$m
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Electricity margin Wholesale ($/MWh)
61.1 56.4 65.0 90.7 91.7 77.6 65.4
Enterprise Value
15,078 16,024 19,896 16,809 15,524 12,752 7,823 6,883
Cost of generation ($/MWh)
34.9 35.5 37.1 43.7 49.1 50.8 47.6
EV/EBITDA
10.0x 9.5x 10.7x 7.5x 6.8x 6.3x 4.7x 5.3x

EV/EBIT
13.4x 13.2x 14.5x 10.1x 9.4x 9.8x 8.2x 9.4x
Gas portfolio

EV/FCF
(13.3x) 12.6x 33.7x 11.1x 22.3x 10.0x 25.0x 13.5x
Retail vol (PJ)
63.0 59.4 58.5 59.9 57.3 58.2 55.9

C&I vol (PJ)
79.1 73.7 61.6 32.3 16.4 15.8 19.4
CASH FLOW

Wholesale incl internal vol. sold
92.0 101.1 109.7 87.8 93.4 81.5 83.1
A$m
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Gas sold (PJ)
234.1 234.2 229.8 180.0 167.1 155.5 158.4
EBITDA
1,505 1,689 1,853 2,236 2,285 2,026 1,666 1,300
Gas margin ($m)
732.0 753.0 642.0 687.0 661.0 654.0 520.0
Net interest paid
(194) (172) (179) (172) (151) (124) (120) (120)
Gas margin ($/GJ)
3.1 3.2 2.8 3.8 4.0 4.2 3.3
Tax paid
(147) (166) (292) (159) (263) (233) (114) (127)

Cashflow related to SI
(142) (64) – – – (7) (122) –
Gas margin Retail ($/GJ)
4.9 5.6 5.2 4.2 4.3 3.8 4.8
Other/ Working capital movements
22 (101) (490) 238 (272) 450 (60) –
Gas margin Business ($/GJ)
0.8 0.8 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.7
Net Cash from Operating activities
1,044 1,186 892 2,143 1,599 2,112 1,250 1,053
Gas margin Wholesale ($/GJ)
4.2 4.0 2.8 4.9 4.9 5.2 2.9
Capex
(744) (533) (503) (720) (915) (714) (695) (545)

(Acquisitions)/ Disposals & Other
(1,431) 614 201 91 11 (121) (242) –
Average Electricity Customers
2,264 2,255 2,243 2,240 2,233 2,284 2,435
Free cash flow
(1,131) 1,267 590 1,514 695 1,277 313 508
Average Gas Customers
1,462 1,437 1,413 1,408 1,421 1,450 1,512
Debt (paid)/drawn
67 (821) 326 (513) (264) 94 212 –
EBIT/Cust.
302.2 328.0 374.2 457.5 454.3 349.8 243.0
Dividends paid
(344) (446) (517) (682) (774) (719) (573) (210)

Other
(2) 1 (16) – – – – –
Assumptions

Equity issued/(bought back)
1,203 (8) (480) (10) (5) (627) (5) –
NEM Annual volume weighted ave prices (A$/MWh)

Net cash flow
(207) (7) (97) 309 (348) 25 (53) 298
NSW
36 54 88 85 92 79 72 62

VIC
32 50 70 99 124 84 51 52
DIVISIONAL BREAKDOWN [EBIT]

SA
42 67 123 109 128 73 53 55
A$m
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
QLD
61 64 103 75 83 56 66 57
Retail
321 371 335 120 145 95 133

C&I
67 87 100 82 49 73 58

Profit & Loss

Wholesale
1,675 1,828 1,967 2,665 2,757 2,630 2,210

A$m
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Total Energy markets
2,063 2,286 2,403 2,868 2,951 2,798 2,401

Sales Revenue
10,678 11,150 12,584 12,816 13,246 12,160 10,942
Group Operations
(729) (842) (814) (919) (1,036) (1,101) (1,091)

EBITDA
1,505 1,689 1,853 2,236 2,285 2,026 1,666 1,300
New Investments
26 25 17 33 33 18 9

Depn & Amortisation
(379) (478) (485) (567) (625) (720) (707) (566)
New Energy
2 (12) 9 – – – 3

EBIT
1,126 1,211 1,368 1,669 1,660 1,306 959 734
Centrally Manged Expenses
(236) (246) (248) (313) (288) (415) (372)

Net interest
(234) (222) (224) (224) (193) (179) (224)
Group EBIT
1,126 1,211 1,368 1,669 1,660 1,306 959 734
Tax
(262) (287) (338) (428) (427) (319) (199)

Minority Interest
– (1) (2) – – – 1
BALANCE SHEET [Selected Items]

Net Profit [adjusted]
630 701 804 1,018 1,040 808 537 280
A$m
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Abnormal Gain/(Loss) after Tax
(412) (1,109) (263) 564 (135) 199 (2,595)
Cash
259 252 154 463 115 141 88

Net Profit [reported]
218 (408) 541 1,582 905 1,007 (2,058)
PPE
7,502 6,482 6,447 6,757 6,588 6,640 6,283

Intangibles
3,266 3,232 3,286 3,271 3,740 3,638 3,302

EBITDA margin (%)
14.1% 15.1% 14.7% 17.4% 17.3% 16.7% 15.2%
Other
4,806 4,638 4,571 4,142 4,378 4,188 5,777

Net Interest Cover [EBIT] (x)
4.8 5.5 6.1 7.5 8.6 7.3 4.3
Total assets
15,833 14,604 14,458 14,633 14,821 14,607 15,450 15,450
Net Debt/EBITDA
2.4 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.9
Debt
3,882 3,108 3,346 2,963 2,850 3,108 3,185

ROTA: EBIT/Total Assets (%)
7.1% 8.3% 9.5% 11.4% 11.2% 8.9% 6.2%
Current Liabilities
2,373 2,329 2,731 2,323 2,546 2,388 2,975 2,975
ROE: NPAT/Equity (%)
7.1% 8.6% 10.6% 12.3% 12.3% 10.1% 9.8%
Other liabilities
3,136 3,346 3,538 3,369 3,533 3,527 6,759

Non Current Liabilities
4,645 4,125 4,153 4,009 3,837 4,247 6,969

Du Pont Analysis

Total liabilities
7,018 6,454 6,884 6,332 6,383 6,635 9,944 9,944
A$m
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Equity
8,815 8,150 7,574 8,301 8,438 7,972 5,506 5,506
Net Profit Margin [adjusted]
5.9% 6.3% 6.4% 7.9% 7.9% 6.6% 4.9%
Net debt
3,623 2,856 3,192 2,500 2,735 2,967 3,097

Asset Turnover Ratio
0.67 0.76 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.83 0.71
Net Debt / (Net Debt + Equity) (%)
29.1% 25.9% 29.6% 23.1% 24.5% 27.1% 36.0%

Equity Multiplier
1.80 1.79 1.91 1.76 1.76 1.83 2.81
Cash Conversion
92% 90% 74% 111% 88% 122% 89%

ROE
7.1% 8.6% 10.6% 12.3% 12.3% 10.1% 9.8%

BV per share
13.48 12.08 11.32 12.66 12.87 12.79 8.84

Tax burden
70.6% 71.0% 70.4% 70.4% 70.9% 71.7% 73.0%
NTA per share
8.49 7.29 6.41 7.67 7.16 6.96 3.54

Interest Burden
79.2% 81.7% 83.6% 86.6% 88.4% 86.3% 76.6%
ROE
7.1% 8.6% 10.6% 12.3% 12.3% 10.1% 9.8% 5.1%
Return on Sales
10.5% 10.9% 10.9% 13.0% 12.5% 10.7% 8.8%
ROTA
7.1% 8.3% 9.5% 11.4% 11.2% 8.9% 6.2% 4.8%
Asset Turnover Ratio
0.67 0.76 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.83 0.71
ROCE
8.4% 9.9% 11.7% 13.6% 13.5% 10.7% 7.7% 5.9%
Equity Multiplier
1.80 1.79 1.91 1.76 1.76 1.83 2.81
ROCE
8.4% 9.9% 11.7% 13.6% 13.5% 10.7% 7.7%

ROE
7.1% 8.6% 10.6% 12.3% 12.3% 10.1% 9.7%

Expand
Where do we get the Total debts of 3.185B ?
Is that after demerger when most of liability to be transferred to the dirty power generation entity ?

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	21682	$10.69

No.

Vol.

Price($)

21682

$10.69

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$10.75	797	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

$10.75

797

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	6072	10.690
2	8909	10.680
1	4486	10.670
1	4486	10.660
1	500	10.620

No.

Vol.

Price($)

6072

10.690

8909

10.680

4486

10.670

4486

10.660

500

10.620

Price($)	Vol.	No.
10.750	797	1
10.770	1700	1
10.790	4486	1
10.800	5056	4
10.810	4486	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

10.750

797

10.770

1700

10.790

4486

10.800

5056

10.810

4486

(20min delay)
Last $10.70		Change 0.240(2.29%)		Mkt cap ! $7.198B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$10.50	$10.87	$10.47	$27.26M	2.541M

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