Yeah, I'm the same. Happy that there were no (bad) surprises which feels pretty damning to say out loud.
Management have been B-C class operators, overpromising and underdelivering.
Maybe they've rested on their laurels because they've been looking to grow through acquisitions and as a result that's occupied their time and hamstrung them in the day to day growth of the existing business. That and COVID is what I'll attribute the subpar performance to and will give them another 6 months purely because the business is basically at breakeven with 5.8mill in the bank and a relatively small market cap.
It appears to be a stock going under the radar but maybe I'm just refusing to give enough weight to the fact that they have misrepresented numbers like the VET ones in the march quarterly and missed the mark since I've been invested.
I invested purely on the back of those VET numbers, expecting to see an extra 4000 students to what they later reported without any clarification/commentary.
I didn't want to bash the stock seeing as I have a conflict of interest in doing that but above that I want to promote good discussion.
I've just gone through the annual and the main thing I found that does not make any sense to me is how full curriculum revenue went down when we have just as many users 103,000 to 102,000 for 2020 & 2021 respectively except now we have a better mix because the 10,000 users we lost in reseller numbers were made up in direct numbers! So, how does revenue end up dropping by ~$800,000 there?! Somebody please enlighten me if you can. The only explanation I have is that prices dropped by about 25% throughout the year, maybe to stay competitive with the growing number of competitors, namely in publishers creating/improving their own software like we saw with the 4 schools that left.
Other than that, AIET went from 9000 users in 2020 and then we added 2000 from COSAMP, meaning AIET grew by 3000 users?!
Include some cross selling into the cosamp base + Ripponlea and we could really see a heap of traction next FY.
Ripponlea have ~2000 users themselves.
It's hard to believe that AIET grew by 33% without any cross selling since COSAMP was purchased in October or so, deep into the selling cycle.
Even a 20% increase (which seems conservative with all the cross selling opportunities) from the whole 16,000 users adds an additional 3200 users. @ ~$220/user equates to another $700k.
you know what, that's enough extrapolating since this company's projections have failed to materialise up until now...I'll just focus on what is in front of me
oh an 15k +underlying EBITDA ...lol
that might be legit but gee that number looks tweaked
I really hope it wasn't because if 15k was the most we could tweak without cooking the books too much then it's probably cause enough to walk
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Yeah, I'm the same. Happy that there were no (bad) surprises...
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