Tully,
Don't forget that next years production is going to be almost entirely from Bengalla only as New Acland ramps down into C&M. So more likely to be 8 Mtpa saleable for FY22 based on 80% ownership of Bengalla.
The entire FY22 sales is not going to be priced at the globalCOAL Newcastle index for 6,000 kcal/kg thermal coal.
We would need to understand how much of the annual production is sold into:
- contracts based on the Japanese reference price
- contracts that are linked to the globalCOAL index
- coal sold on the spot market.
The Japanese Reference Price for JFY21 was settled at US$109.97/t. So I understand any contracts using this reference price will be at US$110 from 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2022, and will be materially below the Newcastle index. Please correct me if I am wrong.
In FY21, Japan accounted for 44% of the total sales, so I might assume some or most of this may be linked to the Japanese reference price.
Then we have the product mix and energy contents for the different products from Bengalla, not all of it is going to be at the 6,000 kcal nar energy content. The presentation and annual report indicates that they are trying to maximise the low ash, high energy product to make the most of the pricing for 6,000 kcal coal, but my understanding that some sales are at an energy adjusted discount to the benchmark.
I still think this is a buy at current levels and note A$490.6m of franking credits available, so looking forward to a prosperous year ahead for shareholders.
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