A very nice set of numbers.Top line growth of 14% has...

A very nice set of numbers.

Top line growth of 14% has essentially been maintained for the last 3 years if you strip out the loss of the omni-bollard which affected last years numbers

5 consecutive years of debt reduction from 5.6million to 1.4million in net debt currently

gross margin down a touch at 34.1%

Excellent signs of operating leverage:

- salary costs down from 20% to 18.7 over last 2 years, similar reductions in motor vehicle/occupancy/ IT/ travel and other costs

--> substantial improvement in the EBITDA margin to 7.1%

finance costs dropping dramatically from 1.3% to 0.7% in this time as well

This is operating leverage at play (and it is beautiful)- seen in the ROE increase from c1 to c9%

If the same trends continue for 1 more financial year, assuming some degree of multiple expansion for execution and ongoing balance sheet deleveraging; ongoing scaling effect on the line items above and other expenses steady % of revenue, you are looking at EBITDA in the order of 1.9m, NPAT of approx 1.2m, ROE of 14% and multiple expansion EV/EBITDA to 9.5 a share price target in the order of 45c.

It wouldn't surprise me if the numbers are even better though...

Some calculations below...

	2016	2017	2018		2016	2017	2018
Rev	16.269	16.936	19.193	%growth	18.2%	4.1%	13.3%
EBITDA	0.504	0.8	1.371	%growth	-38.1%	58.7%	71.4%
PBT	-0.157	0.154	0.71	%growth	74.4%	-198.1%	361.0%
OCF	1.022	1.033	1.47	%growth	942.9%	1.1%	42.3%
Debt	-2.496	-1.992	-1.379	% revenue	-16.8%	-20.2%	-30.8%
COGS	10.219	11.493	12.896	% revenue	62.8%	67.9%	67.2%
Change inventories	-0.103	0.183	0.239	% revenue	-0.6%	1.1%	1.2%
GP	5.947	5.626	6.536	% revenue	36.6%	33.2%	34.1%
other income	0.113	0.102	0.124	% revenue	0.7%	0.6%	0.6%
Salary	3.23	3.277	3.591	% revenue	19.9%	19.3%	18.7%
MV costs	0.144	0.134	0.129	% revenue	0.9%	0.8%	0.7%
Occupancy	0.353	0.362	0.338	% revenue	2.2%	2.1%	1.8%
IT costs	0.156	0.16	0.151	% revenue	1.0%	0.9%	0.8%
Travel	0.308	0.183	0.173	% revenue	1.9%	1.1%	0.9%
Other	1.366	0.813	0.907	% revenue	8.4%	4.8%	4.7%
EBITDA	0.503	0.799	1.371	% revenue	3.1%	4.7%	7.1%
D&A	0.451	0.459	0.515	% revenue	2.8%	2.7%	2.7%
EBIT	0.052	0.34	0.856	% revenue	0.3%	2.0%	4.5%
Finance costs	0.21	0.187	0.143	% revenue	1.3%	1.1%	0.7%
PBT	-0.158	0.153	0.713
Tax	0.041	-0.035	-0.003
NPAT	-0.117	0.118	0.71