A very nice set of numbers.
Top line growth of 14% has essentially been maintained for the last 3 years if you strip out the loss of the omni-bollard which affected last years numbers
5 consecutive years of debt reduction from 5.6million to 1.4million in net debt currently
gross margin down a touch at 34.1%
Excellent signs of operating leverage:
- salary costs down from 20% to 18.7 over last 2 years, similar reductions in motor vehicle/occupancy/ IT/ travel and other costs
--> substantial improvement in the EBITDA margin to 7.1%
finance costs dropping dramatically from 1.3% to 0.7% in this time as well
This is operating leverage at play (and it is beautiful)- seen in the ROE increase from c1 to c9%
If the same trends continue for 1 more financial year, assuming some degree of multiple expansion for execution and ongoing balance sheet deleveraging; ongoing scaling effect on the line items above and other expenses steady % of revenue, you are looking at EBITDA in the order of 1.9m, NPAT of approx 1.2m, ROE of 14% and multiple expansion EV/EBITDA to 9.5 a share price target in the order of 45c.
It wouldn't surprise me if the numbers are even better though...
Some calculations below...
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
Column 7 |
Column 8 |
| 0 |
|
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
|
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
| 1 |
Rev |
16.269 |
16.936 |
19.193 |
%growth |
18.2% |
4.1% |
13.3% |
| 2 |
EBITDA |
0.504 |
0.8 |
1.371 |
%growth |
-38.1% |
58.7% |
71.4% |
| 3 |
PBT |
-0.157 |
0.154 |
0.71 |
%growth |
74.4% |
-198.1% |
361.0% |
| 4 |
OCF |
1.022 |
1.033 |
1.47 |
%growth |
942.9% |
1.1% |
42.3% |
| 5 |
Debt |
-2.496 |
-1.992 |
-1.379 |
% revenue |
-16.8% |
-20.2% |
-30.8% |
| 6 |
COGS |
10.219 |
11.493 |
12.896 |
% revenue |
62.8% |
67.9% |
67.2% |
| 7 |
Change inventories |
-0.103 |
0.183 |
0.239 |
% revenue |
-0.6% |
1.1% |
1.2% |
| 8 |
GP |
5.947 |
5.626 |
6.536 |
% revenue |
36.6% |
33.2% |
34.1% |
| 9 |
other income |
0.113 |
0.102 |
0.124 |
% revenue |
0.7% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
| 10 |
Salary |
3.23 |
3.277 |
3.591 |
% revenue |
19.9% |
19.3% |
18.7% |
| 11 |
MV costs |
0.144 |
0.134 |
0.129 |
% revenue |
0.9% |
0.8% |
0.7% |
| 12 |
Occupancy |
0.353 |
0.362 |
0.338 |
% revenue |
2.2% |
2.1% |
1.8% |
| 13 |
IT costs |
0.156 |
0.16 |
0.151 |
% revenue |
1.0% |
0.9% |
0.8% |
| 14 |
Travel |
0.308 |
0.183 |
0.173 |
% revenue |
1.9% |
1.1% |
0.9% |
| 15 |
Other |
1.366 |
0.813 |
0.907 |
% revenue |
8.4% |
4.8% |
4.7% |
| 16 |
EBITDA |
0.503 |
0.799 |
1.371 |
% revenue |
3.1% |
4.7% |
7.1% |
| 17 |
D&A |
0.451 |
0.459 |
0.515 |
% revenue |
2.8% |
2.7% |
2.7% |
| 18 |
EBIT |
0.052 |
0.34 |
0.856 |
% revenue |
0.3% |
2.0% |
4.5% |
| 19 |
Finance costs |
0.21 |
0.187 |
0.143 |
% revenue |
1.3% |
1.1% |
0.7% |
| 20 |
PBT |
-0.158 |
0.153 |
0.713 |
|
|
|
|
| 21 |
Tax |
0.041 |
-0.035 |
-0.003 |
|
|
|
|
| 22 |
NPAT |
-0.117 |
0.118 |
0.71 |
|
|
|
|
