CUV 1.04% $15.23 clinuvel pharmaceuticals limited

Decent report by CUV, I thought revenues would be a bit higher...

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    Decent report by CUV, I thought revenues would be a bit higher around $70 Million AUD and tax was always the big unknown so the drop in NPAT was a surprise to me and analysts were closer on this. So the good news is the analyst consensus forecasts for the next 3 years are decidedly bullish:
    22-23 FY: Revenue: $90M AUD NPAT $33.6M AUD
    23-24 FY: Revenue: $112M AUD NPAT $42.1M AUD
    24-25 FY: Revenue: $146M AUD NPAT $56.9M AUD

    Analysts quite accurate this year, so if they can continue that good forecasting then things are looking great with huge jumps in Profits and EPS. Future performance never guaranteed but high patient retention (~95%) and an EPP market which is only 2-3% penetrated gives me no reason to doubt those numbers. EPP market monopoly position is maintained while OTC's are the big unknown and who knows what they will add to those forecast numbers.
    Now Clinuvel is paying tax (like most companies on the ASX who make profits have to do), it means future revenue and growth will flow to the bottom line as this is a one off change from not paying tax, to paying tax, as @MPolo pointed out which is good news for future reports.

    Some passing references to short sellers affecting the share price but nothing about what they will do about it to protect shareholders and perhaps prevent the price manipulation which seems to be a feature of CUV trading. Price now down 50% in 12 months and largely this can be traced to the fake liquidity on the Sell side created by short sellers. I'm guessing ASX200 removal will now occur in the next month and there will have been some selling as ETF's anticipated this, and some more when it occurs, but there is no evidence of large scale selling to destroy the market capitalisation to the extent which has occurred. It is really only short sellers who Sell so aggressively with the intention to force a share price down, most other market participants try to get the best price possible when selling. Clinuvel is such a standout on financials alone that it has actually had some success in attracting new shareholders and it seems a lot of long-termers like myself will continue to be 'rusted on' - there is certainly no evidence of 'en masse' selling. Here is a comparison from the last 12 months on the shareholder register and it seems obvious it is the fake liquidity which has been forcing the price down as plenty of new buyers have entered the register :

    2021 (17th Sept) (4889 Holders with marketable parcel):
    1-5000 shares: 4551 holders 6.1% Capital
    5001-10000: 135 holders 1.99% Capital
    10001-100,000: 176 holders 9.67% Capital
    100,000+: 27 holders 82.24% Capital

    2022 (15th Aug) (5657 Holders with marketable parcel):
    1-5000 shares: 5300 holders 7.22% Capital
    5001-10000: 160 holders 2.37% Capital
    10001-100,000: 170 holders 9.05% Capital
    100,000+: 27 holders 81.36% Capital

    So 768 new holders in a small company in less than one year is not bad. Plenty of people from different parts of the world attracted to a company with super strong EBIT growth just on a 'proof of concept indication' , and blockbuster potential via future indications, from a drug which is already FDA, TGA, EMA and Israel market approved. My opinion is this shows the share price is largely a construct created by short sellers via the perfectly legal tools of shorting and algorithmic trading, but combined in a manner which artificially distorts the market. Hello ASIC, anyone home? A share buyback would go a long way to protecting shareholder interests in this regard as other companies have chosen to do. Jefferies seem to agree the CUV share price is well undervalued they have increased their target price to $36.90 (up from $31.4). Of course none of this will matter if the 'holy grail' of a self tanning solution is ever achieved, I think it will be galactic. I get Clinuvel can't go and spruik this sort of potential product if that is on the cards, but they have plenty of other things to talk about, unfortunately I have not seen any articles or self promotion since the results which I think is poor. Anyway, I have no reason to sell after those results, happy to wait for the growth story to continue and the story to play out, I will probably add more as the shorters play their games as they do have to buy back well over 3 Million shares in this tightly held register with only 49.4 Million shares on issue.

    All IMO DYOR


 
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Last
$15.23
Change
-0.160(1.04%)
Mkt cap ! $763.0M
Open High Low Value Volume
$15.39 $16.02 $15.22 $2.031M 129.6K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 186 $15.22
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$15.36 646 1
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Last trade - 16.10pm 24/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
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