Hello @zaidi675
I expect that ARB has current (trailing) earnings power to current market cap (about $1,500m, @ $18.9 per share) of about 3.1% or 3.2% (1). Or said differently, I think ARB is generating a trailing earnings yield of about 3.1% to 3.2%.
If I assign some value to franking credits (2) then I'm willing to say that ARB is currently generating a trailing somewhat grossed up earnings yield of about 3.4% to 3.6%.
With a 5 year view of growth, I expect a prospective earnings yield (similarly grossed up) of somewhere between 4.9% and 6.3% (3).
However, to assign no value to growth beyond year 5, for one of the greatest compounding machines in Australia, would be completely unfair. Without getting into a lot of detail, if I assume that each dollar retained by the company generates about $1.7 dollars of value, then I get that the total prospective return (including growth beyond year 5) is somewhere in the range 6.1% to 7.9%. I think of this as an expected return of about 7.0% (the mid point), with a somewhat pessimistic prospect of only 6.1%.
I don't think that's a terrible prospect, especially when I think about the capital gains tax I will incur when I sell (which I did when I sold a little about 6 weeks ago). But I also don't think it's a particularly enticing prospect.
I think if I could purchase ARB with an expected return of about 9.5% and a somewhat pessimistic return of at least 7.0%, then it would be an attractive prospect. To achieve this, according to my numbers, we would require a share price of about $13. This price would correspond with a trailing earnings yield of about 4.7% (a PE of about 21).
Cheers, Mars
(1): This is based on cash earnings (ie after expensing all R&D), and is based on earnings from sales only (which is how I usually like to think about earnings).
(2): Though not acknowledging the full face value of them. After all, who knows how much longer we will have the benefit of a full tax refund on imputation credits.
(3): This is what I call the present value of earnings, divided by the current market cap (hence a "yield"), with a 5 year view (so ignoring any growth beyond year 5). So it can be thought of as a prospective return which ignores the value of any growth beyond year 5.
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ARB
arb corporation limited.
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Hello @zaidi675 I expect that ARB has current (trailing)...
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Last
$31.77 |
Change
0.005(0.02%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.646B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$32.11 | $32.36 | $31.40 | $1.203M | 37.76K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 102 | $31.75 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$31.78 | 18 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 39 | 31.720 |
2 | 65 | 31.700 |
5 | 155 | 31.690 |
4 | 166 | 31.680 |
3 | 119 | 31.670 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
31.730 | 83 | 8 |
31.740 | 14 | 4 |
31.750 | 100 | 3 |
31.760 | 68 | 2 |
31.770 | 197 | 7 |
Last trade - 13.08pm 02/04/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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