@vic_wattle
Firstly I will say that we need to be careful about blindly adopting reported NPAT in any calculation (including in determining ROE). Below I show a normalised ROE and a normalised notional ROE (ie adjusted for net cash on the balance sheet). In both cases I have constructed earnings purely from sales (including net interest for the former), and I have normalised tax rates to moving-average levels.
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Whilst it is undeniably true that ARB has become more capital intensive since 2011 (especially in terms of working capital), probably largely related to its export efforts, I think what we are seeing, as much as anything (and probably more), is returns-on-capital coming down from extraordinary levels (no doubt related to the mining boom), to just plain excellent levels.
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