Don't be so sure.Remember, the majority of these hedges are...

Don't be so sure.
Remember, the majority of these hedges are purchased 1 year out. A year ago, we didn't have the price per MWh we have now. NSW for example:




So TPCs hedges were purchased at much lower prices, nobody forseeing the massive spike in wholesale prices.

If you're buying hedges 1 year in advance from now, it looks something like this in NSW:


(dotted line = FY21)

So even buying electricty for customers a year out is at least 2x the cost it was in FY21.


Finally - note the gain from hedging was significant - over $11m, with EBITDA of $9m.

I'd still expect them to stay EBITDA positive, but any big fluctuations in energy pricing would really hit them hard...


Also worth considering - this line in the AR:

I'd be keen to see how they've changed their approach to hedging. Seems significant given the environment.




Don't get me wrong, these guys are running a crappy business in the best way possible. They're just really swimming against the current right now...