"In your claim of a 30% decrease in revenue you have excluded the R&D rebate AND the lending revenue."
Yep.
R&D is a one-off.... no-brainer.
The 30% decrease in ticket-clipping is a red-flag, as the lending revenue growth rate is directly tied to this metric. Bad all-round.
"The $4.9m tied up in the loan book isn't a furphy either as they likely require say 10% first loss capital in the new $50m DW facility, which facility is drawn down in increments and therefore the full $5m isn't required all at once."
As you said, the $4.9m is TIED UP. And will be TIED UP while ever the 10% first loss is a requirement. Thus it ain't cash that is available for any length runway.
The only way this cash will be freed up is when the lending facility growth follows the current ticket-clipping trajectory and starts to decline as well.
Either scenario is not good.
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