One thing to mention on this. Previous years had management fees...

One thing to mention on this. Previous years had management fees from Ozgrowth/Westoz, which was sold in 2022. We don't get to see how Rev/PBT these fees generated, so you have to speculate to a degree.
If anyone manages to find these figures, I'm all ears.

The segmental accounts do specify a line item "Performance & Management Fees", which historically would have been derived almost exclusively derived from the Ozgrowth and Westoz investment management mandates, and the P&L also itemises the Equity Accounted Profits of EZL's interests in Ozgrowth and Westoz.

To contextualize their historical contributions, these two Ozgrowth/Westoz related items are represented by the yellow and blue segments in the column graph below (with the continuing business revenue streams is various shades of grey):




Yes, the chart actually commits a bit of a presentation crime because it includes a measure of Profits (the blue shadings) on the same graph as Revenue, which is what the remaining data are. Still, the point of the exercise was to show the relevance of the contributions from the historical association with Oxgrowth/Westoz.

Instructively, the columns for DH22 and JH23 show the normalised Revenue for the continuing businesses, as well as the extent of the cyclical compression (especially in DY22) of Underwriting/Placements, Brokerage and Corporate Advisory.

My sense is that there is some half-yearly Revenue seasonality (June half years have tended to be 15% to 20% stronger than Dec halves), but it is clear that - looking at the continuing businesses - DY2022's $40m Revenue number is not representative of normal business conditions for the company.

I think $50m is more like it, based on history.
Coupled with $60m in the second half leaves a working assumption of $110m of mid-cycle Revenue.

Write your own adventure on what the cost base should be (we'll all have our own views on that) and it should give you a reasonable mid-cycle earnings number off which to base a valuation.
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