Ann: Appendix 4E and FY21 Financial Report, page-35

I've done some slight modifications and additions - result in figure below:



First of all, despite all the upcoming producers, there is no avalanche coming. Most are (potentially) coming online 2025 onwards, and there will be a significant supply gap to deal with.

The three lines are significant, and are generated independently:
-Dotted line in the middle represents NdPr demand as per common published CAGR predictions using [demand-supply=0] 2019 as base.
-Light grey line represents NdPr demand from my predicted EV uptake (I believe in 65-70% EV by 2030).
-The orange line represents NdPr demand for NdFeB production. 2015-2020 as published, and onwards using published predicted CAGR.
Note: grey and orange values includes an oxide to magnet loss of 20%.

On the right panels, the pies represents demand 2025 and 2030 (according to dotted line). Percentage of production, and kt gap in demand-production.

Thoughts:
-There is clearly a large gap in published production numbers and what is needed for NdFeB. Some of this gap is unquantifiable secondary supply from magnet scrap/swarf in China and Japan. Regardless, the trends all point the to the same, there is a significant supply gap from now onwards.

-Some prospective producers are already sending concentrate to China while doing feasibility/economic studies for a separation plant. This could indicate that the supply gap will be even bigger, as there is no increase in supply once these companies instead retain their concentrate and produce separated oxides. On the flip side, increased recycling efforts may help bridging the gap.

-Most of these companies have an investment of a billion+ dollars to mull over.. which will lead to either big loans or big share dilution.. or going bust.

DYOR, comments/thoughts welcome.
Disclosure: I am not invested in any of the companies on the list (bar LYC), so I'd like to think I've kept an unbiased mind.