stlamc, I would say that while alot of the pain in the last 12-18 months or longer int he commodity cycle slump should have been factored into FRI, I believe only now is the other side of the equation hitting home (and hence the downtrend in pricing per a technical anaylsis POV) - that is the investment side.
LIke you said concerto apartments aren't cheap. But the exact worry is that people, aka investors are piling into everything and anything property. IT's like the "it never goes down" life line of more mums and dads than owning a share portfolio if you ask me. It's a rite of passage and a "must own", and sure it's unlikely, but I believe if interest rates do go up and/or the economy gets worse in turn due to WA's commodity slump, there's a chance the leveraged property inflated prices will jump.
TBH i'm not a huge fan of the port headland exposure and the sooner they sell it off and be rid of it, the better. As I said, I don't believe they would put those adverts in the paper for "as good rental returns as perth" if they weren't in some strife in finding buyers. In a good market you'd never see anyhting like that.
Today's hit was quite big to the shareprice and also on higher volume than recent times. Obviously some large retail money getting out. I think people are finally starting to discount future share price on the basis of this slump getting worse.
I think there may be more to come, so the quesiton is do you cash out and run... hmm no doubt in the longer term finbar has impressive pipeline of portfolios, but again this depend son investor demand. no good having the south perth and nb projects in the pipeline if by 2016-2018 the prices and/or buying interest is dried up, as it was in 2008'ish.
I think the share price is showing an adequate warning of the future direciton of price. Which other listed apartment/property developers are there? Blackburne? I'll need to check their chart but I'm sure they have entered a similar down trend on their respective graphs too.
And I would of course argue finbar's dependence on investor sales is a reasonably high portion.
My 2013 NTA /share is giving $0.93, how did you adjust to get to $1.02 (9 c higher) Quickbux? 2013's debt to equity ratio rose to 93% if i am reading this right.... i know 50% is the land owner's contribution of the land, but level of debt (as expected of a property developre) seems alot higher than having near nil debt, after all to have near nil debt their debt-equity ratio would be closer to 0?
Tomorrow's price will be interesting... if this doesn't tick back upwards then the divergence in RSI will, at least from an experience pov, teach that a turnaround isn't guaranteed .
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