the answer is simple brryh and that is, how many biotech companies make it to the shelves? im more interested to know why you think the probabilities of that are higher and if it makes sense then id be happy to jam 80K into this stock now. but im not a science man, im more of a price and risk/reward type of clown. i know there have been positive indications from the company but lets not forget what happened to pbt2 and its original use.
plus another indication from probability of success in my eyes is life biosciences support. 2 board resignations and a ~50% reduction in shareholding. i can only assume these people know significantly more about this business than i do.
believe me when i say that i want this company to be successful mostly because if my greedy self interest but the companies silence can be deafening. the worst part is that i chose this one as my main biotech punt over acw. could have made at least 500k from that one. with ath, one can get tired of constantly having to trade out of every pump and trading down your average over time. at one stage you have to wonder if this is the best use of our hard earned.
perhaps 15-20% is more a measure of my current optimism on ath...
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