"...sales revenues benefited from the acquisitions of Thule and Kingsley - in your "hump" - so the graph doesn't really show underlying growth rates in Australia over the period."
I've had another look at this. I concede that the visible uplift commencing in 2010 will have been assisted by Thule & Kingsley, but I find it exceedingly difficult to believe that the primary driver was not the mining boom. In any case, whatever caused the uplift, I find it even more difficult to believe that the slowdown seen in 2014 was not overwhelmingly driven by the unwinding of the boom.
Ultimately, what really matters to me as that the growth, after accounting for transient booms & busts, is consistent with attractive returns on invested capital. If we try to remove the effects of "the hump" by for instance looking at growth rates in revenues, or more importantly in underlying operating earnings, commencing prior to the hump (say in FY2008) and culminating in FY2017, then I believe we can form a clearer picture of whether or not we should be satisfied with ARB's growth performance.
On this score, I get growth rates that are entirely consistent with ROE's of +20% (after accounting for capital paid out as dividends). I personally believe it is unreasonable to ask for more than that.
ARB Price at posting:
$16.70 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)