Ann: Appendix 4E & Annual Report, page-42

Based on what you say, the price is quite a bargain. The IP alone should give this an enterprise value greater than $0 which is where we are right now.

The target occupancy study and strategic plan are due next week (if on schedule). As of August, target occupancy was stated as "encouraging" which means bad news in that regard will be a surprise. Toxicology has also shown no signs of adverse effects in long term doses. Its well known that extremely high doses are toxic but this level is beyond anything needed (as identified in pre
clinical animal studies). The toxicology wont be completed until 2020, however if we want to extend phase 2 studies to 20 weeks or so, we do not need to wait until next year to get approval for that, as the drug has already been proven to be safe at such a duration.

ideally we would like to see the XanADu report stating that the level of inhibition over the 12 weeks was inadequate, despite actually working. If the report says that cortisol was reduced significantly yet there were still no positive effects, that will be worst case scenario, and I expect management to attempt a hail mary and increase duration and hope that does the job.

Assuming the XanADu report states that inhibition was inadequate and target occupancy study is as expected, I expect quite a lift in the share price. The failure has set us back 2 years. 3 years ago however, the share price hit 9 cents, back then, that would have been a market capital of 55 million or so, and cash in hand was no different. Back then this was a single indication treatment, we are now looking at targeting 4. Additionally have a tonne more data which has vastly improved the predictability of xanamem.

My concern at this point is mostly the funding aspect. If we don't secure some sort of partnership then we are looking at a 2 billion share register by the time phase 2 is funded. There is no way they can fund more than one indication purely from capital raising. They are currently developing a clinical advisory board to commence a second indication so it really makes me wonder how they intend to do it. If they pull some sort of non-diluting funding then I expect long term holders, assuming they averaged down, will be far better off than before.

good luck to all