Ann: Appendix 4E & Full Year Statutory Accounts , page-13

re: Ann: Appendix 4E & Full Year Statutory Ac... Hi Firsova , caketin etc.

More From my research:

and a comment on your comments:

1. It is the same Mark Simari - The actor - however think its in the past.

2. Yes I bought just north of 100,000.

So here is the added info:

TB has left but it was not to go and compete but to go back to his roots which were in pathology. No real issue there.

There is a share overhang as you have identified.

The big problem in this company as I see it is the lack of capital - I can invest in TPAPA and get 12% yet they have private investor funding at 9.5% and 10%. I would not lend them that sort of money and I believe they would have been in a much better position if they could have a few million more capital. obviously its a chicken and egg scenario. You cannot issue shares at this low price it is not only the dilution but it makes it very hard for the investors who have paid much higher to get back their investment. They cannot really afford the rates they are paying as their current ROE is not at these levels even if you go back to before this past year. What i really like is the congruence of management and shareholders objectives - many other ASX listed companies would go out there and have a massive rights issue @say 17 cents to raise 4 million and dilute shareholders. That is not in the best interests of shareholders and only when management have paid for skin in the game does this understanding exist.

So what is my conclusion on this issue:

Management have identified (probably also focused upon by the bankers not being happy with the decline in Market cap)that getting and keeping the business in profit is number one objective. It was clear from my research that they are really a focused company now and that the objectives are not acquisition but getting what they have to make an impact. I think that repaying the bank is a larger issue because I dont think they would have loaned as much to the company which this market cap. I think that the company will have to this year focus on getting profit up and sp up but also repaying debt as fast as possible.

There is obviously a strange occurrence with regard to interest that is always in the first quarter - Probably delay the interest payment to 1 July each year. last year same quarter was $276K yet full year interest only $728K so this quarter ( to sept 2012 -4c) at $202k Suggests we have a drop of $74K - I think that should be divided by 2 and expect that interest will drop by around $150K for the year. I am not sure if the $700K savings includes the interest but think it probably would.

So my estimation is that they will get to the following ranges:

An average year - T/O $16.5 million and a net profit before and after tax of $500.000 ( remember that $700K saving still has to service loss and extraordinary profit in last years financials)

An improved year: T/O $17.5 million and a net profit before and after tax of $750,000

An good year : T/O $19 million and a net profit before and after tax of around $1million.

They wont pay a dividend as they need to repay debt so in all cases the company repays overdraft.

Its a good result and should IMO push the sp into a range of 30c at the low to 40c at the higher end.

The reality of this share is however that under 40c it wont be (hopefully) issuing new shares and as such the next 36 months would be used to utilise the assessed losses and rebuild share price and repay debt. Once that is done I believe you will see this business fly. So no divy but great capital growth so its one for the Super IMO or for a long term holder.

Good find and with much promise I think. The risk profile however is a bit higher given the capex nature of its sales basket and its gearing. I am amazed that the auditors did not require them to write off some of the goodwill given last years performance.