Ann: Appendix 4E Preliminary Financial Report, page-8

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youngdog

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04/03/23

16:31

Post #: 66603180
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Originally posted by keithdav: ↑

I am still bullish on FDV

I think it is easy to focus on the short term, particularly the share price (down from a peak of $1.80 to around 75 cents).

But if you look at the longer term big picture:

1. Revenue has grown every year. From $9 million in 2017 to $82 million now. Over 40% per year on average over 6 years.

2. Losses have decreased, close to profitability

3. Yes there is emerging market risk. Pakistan may have an economic collapse. But even if it does, there will eventually be a recovery. People will still buy and sell houses. Zameen will still be the dominant real estate website. Look at what happened in Sri Lanka. Not as disastrous for FDV as you might have expected.

4. The price is cheap. Only around 3.5 times revenue. The business doesn't have to perform especially well to exceed expectations.

5. Diversification.FDV is in many different emerging markets. While some individual countries may run into problems, others will likely do well. It is very unlikely that FDV will ever be worth zero.

So for me, FDV is still a buy. Massive upside if they do well in even one or two countries. The downside risk is basically that it turns out to be just too hard to make money from real estate/car websites in emerging markets and the company just keeps struggling along without ever making significant profits. I am betting that this scenario doesn't happen, but I could be wrong.

Even if revenue grows at only half the historic rate over the next 5 years, they would get to AU$200 million, and the company would be worth multiples of the current SP.

Expand

I think you are missing the fact that their percentage ownership in businesses has increased over that time which helps with the revenue numbers although it isn’t organic business revenue growth.

FDV Price at posting: 70.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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Last 22.0¢		Change -0.010(4.35%)		Mkt cap ! $95.41M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
21.5¢	22.0¢	21.5¢	$10.55K	48.02K

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	49844	22.0¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
22.5¢	15000	1

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	49844	0.220
1	20000	0.215
7	142856	0.210
2	20000	0.200
6	296397	0.195

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.225	15000	1
0.230	80501	9
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0.240	230312	9
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Ann: Appendix 4E Preliminary Financial Report, page-8

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Ann: Appendix 4E Preliminary Financial Report, page-8

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