Originally posted by investor_jackson
The only thing keeping PGC above where it was yesterday (77.5c I believe) is the placement at 91.0c - hence the initial excitement, and subsequent almost consistent drop thereafter (as results were read and further digested). If they had just released results alone, which showed actual EPS dropping for the 2nd year in a row and even FY18pf, if you like to use these numbers (management have not surprisingly highlighted these numbers) EPS growth is 6.5% over a 2 year period - that ain't much, lets be honest - even worse, given this 2 year period (which is about the same time I have been following PGC closely - and often getting very close to jumping in several times!) management have almost continually talked about (and mentioned yet again) "Focus on EPS accretive acquisitions" ... yet 'the real numbers' would show a much more 'flat' picture, not a disaster, just not very " EPS accretive".
Maybe this year is the year 'it all comes together' and the real EPS starts to grow but having issued 45% more capital in the past 6 months, management have their work cut out for them (EPS growth wise)! And so far, since the last 1 for 2.8, the current acquisitions are, arguably, barely performing (hence a rather nasty doubt digit percentage 'real' full year EPS drop). Operating cash flows worsening by quite a bit (working capital etc aside) is also another sign acquisitions, which were done nearly half a year ago ("not yesterday"), are barely performing...
As mentioned, I want to jump in on PGC, I think, fundamentally, looking at it from a high view it is a great company, but the past few annual results and half years have left me with more questions than answers - including today's results... and it seems the Mr Market is in a similar spin.
I would tend to agree if the volumes make sense. The average eyeball daily volume is around 500,000 This selling isn't even waiting its got a target to get rid of and its getting out. I would think its one of the big holders and a two look to me like having the volume to do this JPM and the HSBC who by the way took up around 10 million via sub underwriting in April.
Personally I think they are happy to get rid of the balance after they sold over the past 2 days even down to 70c maybe. There is no waiting as soon as one level has filled the next is taken. We are an hour in and 500K has gone and the price is down 2.5c.
Personally I am happy to sit and wait here for either it to get much lower and become a buy ( I have always been overweight here so have to resist the urge) even if I am hugely overweight. This is exactly what happened when the company got indigestion in the 2012 financial year. One large holder who got a lot in a placement sold it down from mid 40's to 23c if memory serves. Really that's the problem with these companies that are not in the ASX300 many won't or cannot via mandate buy the stock.
This price action isn't as I see it a normal response to what was an okay result given all the moving parts. You can take your view that the result wasn't great 13% down but management spooked in February and gave it away too quickly and took on a huge amount of cash and could only complete transactions slowly. In addition the costs of acquiring these businesses even the integration costs a lot and the smaller unit carries this cost until they get the annual income. I am surprised that the Hong Kong company hasn't purchased the 4.9% cheaply on market but I think they are probably not that quick off the mark.
(20min delay)