Yeah I agree... You will be holding 4x your original number of shares if you take them all up, but if other people's expire you won't be diluted to the same extent (4x).
You will basically need to guess how many other people will take up their rights.
I think the fundamental question is what you think the shareprice will be, based on your assessment of how many shares will be in issue and the MCAP you think the company is worth.
This article covers it quite nicely at a fundamental level http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/05/062905.asp
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