"The oppies won't be exercised by holders based solely on (a) director/s excising and some fluffy good news stories ......."
However, depending on your netavg price (mine was 1c above the oppie price) and the size/price of your various parcels (I guess I could take a look, but a bit academic now) exercising oppies can put you nicely into the green, in my case by about 22% at the time, a little less now.
Just doing a simple netavg price calculation by itself gave me a quite erroneous new figure. There are only 2 ways to divide, one result is clearly wrong, either I needed more data or chemo brain is still at work
I had a 50% experience with another holding recently too, but I was a few more % under and in the red too, to go to 50% profit with no price movement was quite a surprise.
Gives me a few interesting possibilities to ponder.
But I completely agree about needing more confirmation for longer term investment, and the bulk of the oppies being exercised.
(20min delay)