I'm not surprised with the speed (or lack of speed). The speed of completing the 10 builds will be highly dependant on the builders and which builds they want to trial HX. One of the contracted builders wanted to build a range of different build types of builds to prove the technology, so presume might take a while to have each of these types ordered by customers to allow builds. I think people are incorrectly assuming the builders will falling over each other to get these builds done really quickly.
Given it will be many years before there are enough HX's capacity to have even a small impact on their business in term of build capacity, why is there a rush for the builders. If you assume the 3 demo builders had priority access, with 1 HX this might be 1 build per week for each builder. Even with 3x HX's, this is only 3 builds per week for each builder. Little relevance cf thousands of builds per year. Hence builders will not be in a rush to complete "today", as short term it has not significant impact. As the true benefit for their businesses is likely 5 years away when there is a large enough fleet of HX's to build a significant number of their houses with HX. FBR is really the one needing this to happen quickly to start generating revenue.
Conversely, if they were trialling a change which could save significant money on every house quite quickly, the trials would have been completed within a couple of weeks.
Whilst this progress is frustratingly slow , even versus their recently issued timeline, this orderly process will hopefully still result in a successful signing of the JV later this year. The builders hold the whip hand and we have to run to their timetable. As the JV will only get signed if they are keen for the service at the end of the demo build stage.
Whilst we are having these delays on getting to the JV signing, this will not change the timings for the 3x HX's being build ATM which is just a important. Getting these 3xHX's completed and shipped to the US is the item which is on the critical path to generating some real revenues. Even more so if the current Aus HX needs to get transported in low loader each time to get around estates !!
So for me the the signing of the JV in September, October, or November does not make a huge difference. Although in terms of derisking FBR investment, the earlier the better obviously. As the real revenue starts to flow once the 3 x US HX's are operational in the US. I can't see this happening before mid Q1. This is the real limitation.
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