KZA 0.00% 8.0¢ kazia therapeutics limited

I think whenever there is a high volume, MMs and HFTs like to...

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    I think whenever there is a high volume, MMs and HFTs like to try to capture the spread, which probably at least doubles the volume of actual traders. There are also a lot of day traders who probably bought the ATM-issued shares above $6 and dumped for a loss when they realized they couldn't push the price higher. Hopefully most of them are already out.

    I'm assuming Kazia issued at least 10 million new shares, although maybe as high as 30 million. Judging from the volume and price action, it seems like the average issue price was somewhere around the equivalent of 0.87-0.90 AUD per share.

    It also seems like Kazia was trending quite a bit on Stock Twits and gained over 300 new followers. Now might be a good time for someone to post some relevant information on that site for any new holders. Confidence from new shareholders would be the quickest path to price appreciation in the near term IMO. Still a little bit wary until July on technical aspects of share price, but from a fundamental perspective, the future looks excellent: Excellent data in DIPG means increasing likelihood of FDA approval for at least one indication for paxalisib (DIPG and/or GBM), enough funds for likely at least another year, meaning no worry of further capital raising needs.

    I also think these newly acquired funds will give Kazia a stronger position in considering further licensing deals. From what has been hinted at in interviews, etc., I think management may be leaning toward licensing out paxalisib to Europe and other non-USA territories but possibly retaining full rights for USA. If milestones for such a deal were structured properly, it would avoid the need for further capital raises while maximizing long-term earning potential of Kazia from paxalisib revenue. If paxalisib continues to show promising data in brain metastasis, as has been recently stated, the revenue potential for paxalisib would be around $10 billion per year in the USA for brain metastasis-related treatment. If Kazia retains full rights in the USA, 80% to 90% of that could become profit from Kazia. Although obviously nothing is guaranteed here yet, the bull case for Kazia has an enormous potential upside for long-term holders.
 
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