Hi Cheyne,
As we know, poor old mate JL will always paint the most negative narrative, as it fits his agenda and somehow heals some of the deep wounds he suffered as a result of the Gibson Island Urea Plant closure.
Out of the 3 options discussed by Justyn in the recent interview, I think you'll find that some sort of cap raise at a ridiculous price would be considered the least favoured option by the board.
A debt deal is possible, but I think the convertible note would be more likely. I'm not exactly sure how much they need, but let's say somewhere between $60M - $100M, it will probably come with a coupon between 10% -15%, and a conversion price between 15c -25c. The key will be whether they are able to pay down the loan before the shares are converted.
In the meantime, if any shareholders see a John L throwing his hat in the ring to become a Director, I'd be exercising some caution, but let's see what the next few weeks bring. If Justyn is true to his word, really, it would be dangerous to let the Pre-FID funding slide into the silly season - it needs to be sorted in November, we hope!
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