Ann: Application for quotation of securities - PAA, page-13

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Peeteepoo

2,635 Posts.

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06/02/24

19:59

Post #: 72270186
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Originally posted by Jakjazz: ↑

Hmmmm your question raises multiple pathways but I guess does the board (with support of SHs) want a lick of the ice cream (MND) or the whole thing and when I say the whole thing, MND, canine and human cancer, neurodegenerative diseases (obviously receiving more and more attention by PAA), covid and all those other diseases tested by the Olivia Newton-John Cancer Centre.

You would think as mentioned by you that BP would want to see the Phase 2/3 results before they made a move but if the top line results are remarkable then its risk versus reward comes int play and as NZT often mentions protection by BP of their current revenue streams. My thinking therefore is if we get remarkable results then it would be no surprise for BP to seek a potential licensing arrangement of MPL for MND. Not sure a T/O would be in play due to the valuation issues related to MPL as a treatment for other diseases etc. I am sure the SH would want something to reflects MPL's potential even if not trialled. If a T/O was in play before Phase 2/3 suggest its an attempt at a "cheap charlie" price in order have access to MPL for other neurodegenerative diseases etc.

Als remember Spark provided a ~$1/per share valuation (only MND and canine cancer) as of now and as such the $1/share is heavily risked given the current state of trialling and no top line results. Should top line results be achieved then in my simple mind the $1/share would increase substantially ($1.50 - $2.00).

Anther issue is BP's revenue cliff and what areas of revenue need to be replaced. This leads me to think a licensing proposal would be likely prior to a Phase2/3. Get in early and keep the cost of licensing MPL at a minimum and before other BPs create an expensive auction for MPL.

I would hope and do expect current management to maximize the value of MPL for PAA and all SH and as such assuming top line results are remarkable then they would favour a licensing of MPL for MND while pursuing MPL as a treatment for all the various other diseases/cancer i.e. adopting a policy of monetisation of MPL through licensing arrangements. This would be the long game and SH would see (hopefully) an ever increasing SP plus dividends.

I think we should also remember a T/O may not necessarily be a cash transaction but could be equity or equity/cash. The earlier any T/O then the less likely SH will receive the full benefit from MPL as the new penicillin fr numerous diseases but there is also no certainty of future success.

Gee i could go on for ever but its easy to lose track of the thought process so better stop here for now.

I am also sure there are other more qualified HC people to opine on your questions.

Phewwwww....thats all folks!!!

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Thanks JJ,
You raise some interesting and valid points. I'm very grateful MPL has proven to be an effective [Almost proved beyond doubt] neurological treatment. The Oncology field is more competitive and trials appear much more expensive and time consuming. Well they appear to be anyway.

Finger crossed, all we need is a bit of luck.

Cheers

PAA Price at posting: 17.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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