Originally posted by dpbear
Two hurdles before we can get to the prize:
the leadership battle +
CR.
From my extremely crude calculations, I have made a probability tree with likely (80%) and less likely (20%) binary outcome variables.
I am really interested to see what other people would replace my percentages with for the outcome variables, please share if you have any opinions.
Odds of everything going perfectly = 51.2%
Odds of a slower rerate = 12.8%
Thankyou dpbear for your well informed and highly entertaining posts. It was minoil's post in the STT thread that led me here, but this is one interesting story unfolding here.
I think your probability tree is as close to a scientific analysis of the road ahead as were likely to get... im curious whether this is inspired by the Taproot process and if you happen to work for a Gippsland Basin JV company?
BTW the history on Vaz is just bewildering...
