If the odds are not in our favour, then the expected returns of...

If the odds are not in our favour, then the expected returns of this duck must be adjusted in order to justify holding it at all. Yes, there is a ‘probability’, some number, we will in fact never know, attached to the proposition that PNR will spill its guts all over the table because it’s management are not surgeons, but butchers. The compensation for this guess - the vibe portending disaster - can only be found in an expectation of what it might be worth over some acceptable time horizon.

Whatever probability you converge upon, if PNR was expected to be worth exactly what it is worth today so many months/years in the future, it would be silly, not sensible to keep this duck. However, there is a speculative guess, for every probability that makes PNR a good bet. Everyone has to engage in this calculus, hopefully every time they think about this stock.

This little exercise is the exercise of being a speculator and a skill that refines itself mostly with its failures.

I’m happy to hold, at this point in time. If your not, sell. Only one of us will be proved right. We are confronted with the law of the excluded middle. I’m not going to whinge if I’m wrong or start swinging my dick in victory if I’m not. If it’s not me and PNR splatters like P-plater on their way home from the pub, then I’ll learn, adapt, revise and hopefully do better in the future. It only money, at the end of the day. I’ll live either way.