For every $10 increase in the price of Fe65% above $85, NPV increases by $565mil on top of USD $1.432bil
At today iron price, NPV10 would be = $1.432bil + ($250 - $85)/10×$565mil = USD $10.73bil = AUD 14.33bil.
That is NPV at 10% discount. No mining consultant uses 10% any more. The more common one is 8% discount in current super low interest rate environment. Therefore NPV would be higher.
Even if price of Fe65% was to come down to USD $150/ton from the current USD $250/ton, NPV10 would still be = $1.432bil + ($150 - $85)/10×$565mil = USD $5.1bil = AUD $6.8bil.
Steelmaking industry will see more and more new steelmills sprung up in India, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Pakistan,...and away from China in the years and decades ahead, helping IO prices remain at sustained high levels and also help reducing China's ability to intervene and manipulate IO prices. Steelmills in the US are struggling to meet frenzied demand and has stopped taking customer's orders for a few weeks as reported by AFR over the weekend. Brazil has another dam assessed at high risk of bursting and collapse and thus was shut down along many other IO mines for risk assessment, squeezing global supply further and more importantly shows that Brazil is not going to be able to ramp up its production volume as easily as expected. Compliance and new regulations also make Vale's IO production costs significantly higher, that in turns will likely push IO higher and higher.
China underground IO mine had water leak problem with 13 workers trapped underground has had domino effect with many otjer IO underground mines also shutdown for risk assessment again highlight the fact that China's domestic IO production is full of risks of shutdown, low quality, high inefficiency, high cost, compared to Australia IO operation.
CAP's HAWSONS IRON PROJECT is ranked by Wood Mackenzie as the best undeveloped iron ore project in the world and was awarded "MAJOR PROJECT STATUS" by the Australian Federal Government and the NSW government for what it's worth.
CAP Price at posting:
14.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held