There’s a legitimate pathway to a $1 share price—if the asset’s...

There’s a legitimate pathway to a $1 share price—if the asset’s earnings potential is unlocked.

Understandably, there’s frustration given the current share price and delays to development, but it’s important to distinguish between market sentiment and asset value. KGL’s Jervois Project is forecast to generate approximately $150 million USD in annual EBITDA once in production. Based on public market comparables—mid-tier copper producers trading on EBITDA multiples of 5× to 7×—this implies a potential enterprise value of $750 million to $1.05 billion USD for the project.

If KGL were to sell 25% of the project to secure development funding, it would retain 75% ownership. This equates to a retained value of $562.5 million to $787.5 million USD. With 692,318,047 shares on issue, this translates to a potential per-share valuation range of approximately $0.82 to $1.15 AUD, depending on FX rates, gearing, and final project terms.

It’s critical not to judge the value of the asset based solely on today’s share price. The market is discounting risk—not valuing the resource. The project is fully permitted, and copper’s long-term fundamentals remain robust. The only question that matters in the near term is whether the company’s corporate advisors can deliver a viable funding stack. If they do, and development proceeds, the asset’s earnings power becomes visible—and the stock has a credible path to rerating.

A $1 share price is not merely speculation—it’s a conservative projection grounded in the economics of the asset and the valuation of peer producers. Right now, the market is pricing uncertainty, not value. That’s precisely where upside comes from—if execution is delivered.