A11 2.90% 35.5¢ atlantic lithium limited

Ann: APPOINTMENT OF FLOTATION SCOPING STUDY PARTNER, page-4

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  1. 2,988 Posts.
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    @macecap, I am not an insider at Atlantic, but thank you for the complement as they appear a skilled team. If there was a way to contribute to the project while remaining where I currently life, I'd consider it.

    I can't prevent you having your view's but I don't agree with them. I do share your annoyance that the share price isn't stronger than it is and suspect that the key re-rating event will be robust progress towards the mining licence which is unfortunately outside the direct control of Neil. I presume you have never had commercial dealings with Government departments before but it is extremely common for things to appear likely the are just about signed and then take a lot longer than expected.

    IMO Atlantic would have been wise to present two payback calculations & IRR calculations. The first is the technical one that has been presented in the DFS of 19 months where the payback clock starts as the modular DMS starts to generate revenue. The second payback calculation would have been a footnote which assumed the modular DMS expenditure was still incurred but it generated zero revenue. The payback/IRR start period would have then commenced around a year later when the main 2.7Mt DMS plant started to generate revenue. This second payback period is more comparable to what was previously stated and remains very short. There isn't quite enough information in the DFS to confirm how short, but I'd estimate it remains around 6 months meaning the underlying DFS IRR would also remain nearer 200%. From work to replicate the DFS calculations, the 2026 year forecast of the DMS would appear to have circa $763m of revenue and around $200m of expenses for an EBIT figure around $550m (SC6 $2,557). The after tax surplus in 2026 looks to be modeled at about $1m/day. This would mean a $185m of capex is paid back in six months.

    Blue Orca released a dodgy report targeting Piedmont that significantly impacted the Atlantic share price. Neil/Amanda are not part of Blue Orca. After this Neil and Amanda tipped into their own pockets with significant on-market purchases. I respect their decision to do this and I don't consider it dodgy because it was in a regulatory allowed trading window following the release of financial statements. What is stranger is that the market hasn't appreciated this massive investment signal that with all the extra things the insiders know, operations are ok. Typically following insider buying is good investment strategy.

    Given the potential EBIT that the Ewoyaa project will generate, I'd suggest that Atlantic has never reached particularly inflated prices while trading on the ASX. Atlantic will have a 45% share of earnings once Piedmont has completed its earn-in and the Ghanian government has take their free-carry 10%. After the flotation plant is commissioned the project will be over 400ktpa of Spod. Using 350ktpa as a generic early stage production figure, Atlantic's share is 157.5ktpa which is close to the volume Core lithium has projected. Through PLL's contribution, off-take financing and the modular DMS there is likely to be minimal to no capital raising to get to Ewoyaa into production (assuming no Spod price collapse). A strong pump for a pump&dump would have taken Atlantic's MC up to perhaps half or more of Core's MC and something nearing 1B MC. Given Core has 3x as many shares, this would have had Atlantic trading well above Core's share price which has not occurred in recent years. Despite Atlantic's share of Ewoyaa remaining on-track to match Core's current scale in a couple of years, Atlantic is about 1/6th Core's current market cap. IMO the share price could double and still not be excessively expensive. Despite different countries, Core is a good benchmark to measure Ewoyaa against as:
    • Both have DMS as their primary method of concentration
    • Both are close to cities/towns for labour (no fly-in-fly-out)
    • Both projects are made up of a number of medium and smaller deposits rather than one particularly large deposit
    • Both are close to port
    • Both projects are operating in areas with defined wet seasons that may impact machinery movement during that time
    • Both have plans to connect to the grid
    • Both have gone with a minimum viable startup proposition (Short start-up life of mine to be extended by exploration when in production)
    • Both had early off-take agreements to progress the project
    • Both are building projects in areas where no historical lithium mining has occurred
 
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