Hi J8,I wouldn't give it 100% but I would certainly agree that...

Hi J8,

I wouldn't give it 100% but I would certainly agree that its still much more likely than not. When I said that the options might look very sick I was referring to those who got caught up in the hype yesterday paying upto 3.9c. As of this moment in time the largest offer for those exact same options is now down to 2.4c. Thats a massive 39% loss in 24 hours. They are already looking sick.

Looking forward however in the absence of any other "real" news I would expect the heads to hold around 7c or just below leading upto the exercise expiry. This would give the options an intrinsic value of around 2c although they are likely to trade at a discount in the days preceding the expiry as there are always holders who sit on many millions of these and can't or don't want to stump up the cash to exercise.

Overall on reflection I agree that most will be exercised however many options holders may well take a bath given what they have been paying for them. Personally however I think that this latest announcement suggests that its going to be another very long wait for those interested in seeing the product commercialized and too many people have been burned in the frenzy after recent announcements so it will be difficult to keep the price of the heads up above 5c over the coming year.

As we both know, you either need to trade the announcements or have a very long term view on BIT. I wish I had known this over a decade ago when I first got into BIT. Fortunately various announcements over recent years have provided the liquidity to trade in and out to reduce the boredom of the never ending wait and make it financially viable to justify my interest.