"How sure are you that this is going to survive?"... Not at all. Did some deeper research yesterday, asked around some old contacts for what they knew/heard (which I hate and rarely ever do... don't have many contacts, don't like asking, don't like cheating) and I have a better understanding of the situation. In short; still believe the project has no 'technical flaws' can't be solved (eg geological, mine management, processing) but less confidence in ever hitting nameplate product and even less confidence in operating margins, and in the end is the only thing counts. Not buying more even at these prices, at a minimum will wait to see how bad the Oct update is and where price settles from there...
Some posters like @LongTony have posted they heard "Coburn was never going to work", which I challenged from a technical point of view. It's now history that the design, commissioning and ramp-up was a complete disaster which is management related or simply bad luck (eg equip failure) not fatal technical flaws. I believe industry's doubts about Coburn ultimately related to the practicality of reaching nameplate based on the design/build, and economics based on likely costs vs unrealistic DFS guided costs on an already low grade, high tonnage project which by definition is highly sensitive to small changes in variables (as opposed to high grade, low tonnage projects).
I will try to post my thoughts in detail as I get time.
GLTAH
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