Ann: Appointment of PwC as Strategic Debt Advisor, page-24

I somewhat agree that long term urea prices will pull back, but don’t think they will completely retrace, I also don’t think they’ll settle in <24 months.

I don’t think anyone can truly forecast how long current world market conditions can last, I don’t see trade tensions with China easing anytime soon, and there’s a possibility things escalate, let’s say using the Ukraine conflict as distraction to seize Taiwan, they’ll have trade sanctions akin to Russia imposed and cement a trade standoff that would take years to unravel.

Russia won’t be welcomed back to free trade conditions anytime soon. I would compforyably challenge anything that thinks the world will be business as usual 2019 by next year. Sustained increased urea prices are here to stay:
-Chinese export bans won’t lift in the near term; risk of serious degradation if they take expansionist actions in SEA.
-Russian trade sanctions will likely be in place for years
-rising energy prices (cost of gas feedstock)
-Covid identified requirement for sovereign fertiliser supply to shore up domestic production
-green/carbon neutral production is increasingly important, a proven Australian manufacture can prove carbon neutrality.

I’m very optimistic that macro conditions are ripe for Urea production in Australia, LCK is right place, right project, right time. I’m frustrated with delays but nothing has changed about the project.