What's a proper valuation for the company, though? Right now...

What's a proper valuation for the company, though? Right now it's $120 million USD, which doesn't seem inordinately low to me compared with other clinical-stage companies multiple years from commercialization but there's no guarantee that it stays even that high. I'm not saying it won't, the share price could spring back up after the IPO and stay there but I won't be surprised if it doesn't either. IMO there's no possible way to create any legitimate DCF model for a product likely 5 years away from gaining commercial traction.

What I try to do in these situations is try to project future dilution, then figure how many device sales it would take at a certain p/s multiple to justify a future valuation given that eventual dilution but obviously dilution rises as the price goes down, which will be a big near-term factor given the large IPO raise coming. But that doesn't really set a price, it just tells you whether the stock could still have significant upside depending on whether you think that minimum sales amount will eventually be easy to hit or not, provided that the dilution projections aren't way off, which depends on future share price movement. A big factor in price is always investor sentiment and the effect of that can be magnified one way or the other in pre-revenue companies.

It's my opinion that the stock traded higher over the past couple of years because investors and analysts believed Wayne's promises that commercialization could happen in 2024 or 2025 and now that is undeniably impossible. Seems like supposed experts in the field Perceptive Advisors believed it, L1 believed it, Evolution believed it. A young analyst at Evolution authored a very detailed report in 2022 that projected commercialization in 2025. I was confused by that so I called her after it was published and we a nice phone conversation. She insisted that the analyst and investment sides of Evolution were strictly separated, so no bias in her report, which I believed, and was able to go well into the details of Anteris with me. It's a very thoughtful report but when I asked her why she wrote that she expected commercialization in 2025, she simply told me...that's what Wayne told her. Wayne has a very unique ability to influence people, some may call it bullshitting, and that's what has made him really good at raising money. But there is a downside to that too.

Nothing has changed with the actual progress of the DurAVR, it continues to move forward, but more dilution than expected always removes some potential upside from the table. This is a highly speculative, long-term investment so it carries a large amount of risk and the price should be expected to be volatile. That's the nature of clinical-stage companies.