My calculations are the normalised profit before tax in H1FY21...

My calculations are the normalised profit before tax in H1FY21 is up slightly on the H2FY20 amount. Given the peak of the COVID-19 additional flying happen in the Period between mid March and 30 June 2020, the update today is very pleasing. The announcement today states that the “material impact of the increased fleet on earnings is not likely until FY22” which indicates that a material profit increase is expected in the years ahead. Given the conservative nature of previous announcements, I take confidence that management have a detailed understanding on where the E190’s are going to be deployed and the contractual arrangements around their flying.

Another factor that may influence the resumption of dividend payments is the availability of franking credits. The balance at June 2020 was $7m, however the accelerated capital asset write offs introduced this year may mean that not much income tax is paid to the ATO and therefore there is a shortage of franking credits. If AQZ are thinking they will also purchase the 5 additional E190’s they hold options over, the resumption of dividends may not be for a year or two.