I think the share price at the moment is almost all based on fundamentals. I have said in the past that there are basically 2 underlying determinants of share price - the fundamentals component and the speculative component (aside from doing something stupid like corruption, embezzlement, law suits etc).
The problem with AR9 is that many have been burnt trying to factor in the speculative component. It's very difficult to even guess because of the lack of information. Operating almost exclusively in the Defence sector adds a greater unknown due to the "secrecy" and zilch communication of business activity to the market/shareholders. Consequence is that then the speculative component is wound down to near zero. It's symptomatic of operating in a mono-sector that imposes limited disclosure.
The quarterlies add some confidence that we are inching our way to cash flow positive and some hope that there are big contracts on the horizon. That provides a spike in share price for a flash of optimism and then slowly grinds back down to fundamentals value - the last quarterly being a good example.
Until we have an announcement of a large contract that indicates a sustainable increase in revenue we will continue on this repetitive profile. I have now held for some years, reticent to sell because a couple of large contracts could send it on a sharp upward trajectory. I'm just holding the faith as are some others on this forum, however I won't indulge in affirmations and talk it up. Company performance needs to speak for itself, then the new shareholders will decide whether to invest.
Ye the faithful!
AR9 Price at posting:
13.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
