Does this sound like a good first cut to estimate the SP on commencement of production?
Add the new shares (Seq) to current shares on issue (Scurr) to get total shares at commencement (Stot). This will depend on the average equity raising price (Peq) in USD, and equity capital (Ceq). We know Ceq to be about $800M
Stot = Scurr + Seq = Scurr + $800M / Peq
So if we pull an expected P/E multiple out of the air for a producer (PE), we can get estimate market cap at commencement, based on profit estimates. Base case of $10.2B over 38 year LOM gives about $250M per year.
Divide that by Stot to get the estimate SP in USD, divide by 0.7ish (EX) to get it in AUD.
Plug that formula into excel and see what you get. Here's what I got...
Scurr 2310000000 1 Ceq $800,000,000 2 LOM profit $10,200,000,000 3 Life of mine 38 years 4 Annual profit $268,421,052.63 5 EX $0.70 AUD/USD 6 7 Peq $0.20 AUD 8 $0.14 USD 9 10 Seq 5,714,285,714 11 Stot 8,024,285,714 12 13 PE 10 14 Market Cap $2,684,210,526.32 15 16 SP $0.33 USD 17 $0.48 AUD
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