Does this sound like a good first cut to estimate the SP on...

Does this sound like a good first cut to estimate the SP on commencement of production?

Add the new shares (Seq) to current shares on issue (Scurr) to get total shares at commencement (Stot). This will depend on the average equity raising price (Peq) in USD, and equity capital (Ceq). We know Ceq to be about $800M

Stot = Scurr + Seq = Scurr + $800M / Peq

So if we pull an expected P/E multiple out of the air for a producer (PE), we can get estimate market cap at commencement, based on profit estimates. Base case of $10.2B over 38 year LOM gives about $250M per year.

Divide that by Stot to get the estimate SP in USD, divide by 0.7ish (EX) to get it in AUD.

Plug that formula into excel and see what you get. Here's what I got...

	Scurr	2310000000
1	Ceq	$800,000,000
2	LOM profit	$10,200,000,000
3	Life of mine	38	years
4	Annual profit	$268,421,052.63
5	EX	$0.70	AUD/USD
6
7	Peq	$0.20	AUD
8		$0.14	USD
9
10	Seq	5,714,285,714
11	Stot	8,024,285,714
12
13	PE	10
14	Market Cap	$2,684,210,526.32
15
16	SP	$0.33	USD
17		$0.48	AUD