Hi guys, I bought a few ARU shares at around 40 cents a year...

Hi guys,

I bought a few ARU shares at around 40 cents a year ago, watched them get to 70 cents (felt like a genius), and here we are now today (feeling like a bag holder!). The share price performance has been a disaster. I'm more interested in the actual company performance and where we stand. That hasn't been great either! To be honest, my purchase was very small and I haven't followed the announcements too closely. I have doubts about the large amount required in CAPEX, and the many steps required to mine and refine the rare earths (only Lynas has been successful), but it's no good complaining about that after one has pressed 'buy' and become a holder, then held for 12 months.

I skim through the forum and have seen a lot of negativity about the cap raise (totally understandable) and conspiracy theories. I hold a handful of other small cap mining stocks -- all of which are in a similar situation, unfortunately. Holders (myself included) come here to blow off a bit of steam. Fair enough.

I agree about banning short selling for emerging companies which are, at times, smashed by co-ordinated, relentless shorting efforts -- designed to pro-actively destroy the share price, rather than to profit from expected future poor performance. They seem to hunt in packs and bully small stocks until they can buy back the shares for next to nothing. If it's not price manipulation I don't know what else to call it.

I've read here that this cap raise was unexpected, and that Arafura should have had enough money for the foreseeable future. I can't see there being too many takers at 16 cents. Crazy.

The announcement says the money is for OPEX, rather than CAPEX towards the mine. Assuming they weren't deliberately trying to sink the share price further to help a takeover bid (which I do not accept), what was management playing at? They must have known it would go down like a lead balloon with retail investors, yet it was over-subscribed by the so-called sophisticated crowd. Gina has money to burn but rich people don't get rich by throwing away cash on futile endeavours. There must be at least a degree of optimism that big news for this project is not too far over the horizon. I've read so much negativity but not much in the way of explanation.

The last quarterly report showed $75m in cash but $50m in outgoings. Surely we won't be doing these $20m raises every quarter or so indefinitely. It feels like this small raise was to tide us over for some imminent announcement (funding by the Japanese or Koreans) early in the new year; but what exactly? And how likely is that? Assuming there are, as yet unknown, positive moves afoot in the background and the $20m is to buy us a couple of months' breathing space, could anyone suggest what this positive announcement could possibly be? You'd have to imagine management aren't complete idiots and are working towards a plan of sorts.

I agree with a couple of posters that ARU management seems to have been stringing everyone along with BS announcements and in the business of raising money. Charlie Munger's quote about "a mine being a hole in the ground owned by a liar" comes to mind But if we really are almost at the FID/funding/build stage (a big "if") could anyone speculate as to the timeframe and what is being waited on? I guess I just have too much time on my hands now Christmas is here, and am looking for the bull case for this cap raise, and what the catalyst for a re-rate could be?