The BBB is back (even if briefly)...... I've turned the "noise off" for past 6 months, life's too short and too busy for "the noise"
Been in ARU since 2011 ... have contributed to EVERY Capital Raise since, and that is where I have accumulated a large proportion of my lowest cost shares. The two at 0.37 and 0.265 were the exception.
To the doubters....this Project WILL happen....EVERYTHING and I mean everything points toward completion (when/timelines, etc is another matter)
Yes there is a lot of SP manipulation this past 2 years...shorters and CR players/sophs BEOT. I too am bitterly disappointed about the timing of CRs, and providing shorters with an easy "out"
My biggest disappointment was the fact that the quarterly/recent presentation reveals the TRUE funds that are required to get Nolans up and running beyond Ramp-Up phase and that is about
A$2.4 billion and that the 50:50 Debt to Equity split therefore still stands.(and in fact the BEOTand/or Shorters knew this for ages), whereas I and probably many Retail Holders felt that the Equity component was going to be under $A0.5bil and thus the dilution wasn't going to be too bad.
It was time for a chat with Management DC in fact.
FID will only happen after ALL ($1.2bil) of the Equity is locked in....
I expressed my deepest disappointment that Retail holders were only offered a measly $7-10mil in the SPP, and that ARU should be at a mature stage of corporate life to offer a eg. 1 for 4 Entitlement offer at 0.16 (probably could have got it away at 0.17)....
Timing was an issue, require the Equity funds in the bank to ensure all committed liabilities are covered (ie not trading insolvent) so couldn't wait til later in the year (the SP would have likely got hammered by October if no raise, then the CR would have occurred at under 0.15)
Then the question as to why do we need Equity sooner v later (say after construction started)...lo and behold I was surprised (cos I'm not a Finance Guy) there is a requirement in this Mining game that Equity has to be in there first and THAT ALL EQUITY CAPITAL IS USED FIRST in the Project Construction BEFORE any DEBT is used.
@Birchcorp any thoughts ??
I see us LT holders as being stuck between a Rock and Hard Place. As I've said in nearly all my previous posts.....keep your powder keg dry for the Final Capital Raise...in this case ARU will probably be asking Retail holders for anywhere between 25-50% of their current $$$value of their shares (at current 0.17). This FCR WILL be an Entitlement Offer eg 1 new share for every 2-4 shares owned. Unfortunately for us (who cannot/don't have the $$ to contribute multiples of what they already own) this will lead to significant dilution (with ownership % being transferred to the BEOT/sophs/GinaR/Offtakers/BigFunds/BIGSuper Funds/LICs/UnlistedFunds/overseasFunds...the list goes on).
DC did at least mention the obvious fact that with a $A1.2bil CR (1.0bil fr BEOT, 0.2mil from Retail...my estimate) the Market cap of ARU WILL rise by 1.2bil (or near enough) I was sceptical about that outcome, but I do see his logic.....because they are building a small town out there in NW Alice Springs.
I have been there (to Nolans Bore) long before there was anything there (i lie, there was a rusty sea Container there) in 2013. Yes, DC was a gent and guaranteed me and the missus a guided tour of the Plant whenever we wanted (yes I know after/during its Build).
Basically understand that if the FCR is at 0.20 (lucky) and we raise $1.2bil that's another 6.0bil shares on top of the 2.5+bil so far. The only plus I see then is
1.We are guaranteed of FID and immediate construction....it WILL happen
2.ARU will finally (likely) enter the ASX200 Index
3.And get on the radar of even more investors and ETFs and Overseas investors....pushing up demand for shares
Please understand that ARU is more like an Industrial Company (RE plant/Chemical plant) but with some leverage to higher NdPr prices EX-CHINA (which is yet to develop, but IT IS happening....slower than we'd all like....but it will be a reality) ALL Offtaker contracts will be at prices that ENSURE Nolans success/profitability over 20+years (though no-one has signed up for that long yet) and ARU will be making even more $$$$ by processing 3rd party Oz REO (will not surprise me that even ILUs mounds will get processed at Nolans, and the millions of tonnes that will come from ionic clay deposits in SA eg AR3) from 2032+ (Stage 2)
I am excited about the future of ARU....just disappointed that it has taken this long....and that I wish I had only found out about them this past 2-6 months and invested then and even then gradually bought in.... I hold many and in the past have traded 5-10% of my holding in and out as this is being manipulated due to the fact that ARU requires a stack of EQUITY/NewShares. I personally feel the low of 11.5c will hold and in fact the 16.25c seen the other day is the low this time and any future low will be higher still.
Honestly I will turn off "the noise" yet again....the noise does my mental health no good. I am so busy with work, in fact I can't even attend these Webcasts/Quarterlies because of it.
My plan is to get to Nolans Bore again in 2029 (when I retire) and as I've said before my children and future grandchildren will be reaping the dividends of my ARU holding. Apologies for the long contribution.
All IMVHO, DYOR (cause I have), GLTA(patient)LTH "Build it they will come for more" LTH over 1.0mil but less than 5.0 mil shares.
(20min delay)