No mention/discussion regarding a Premium buy-in price. One can only wait and see, as it will depend on so many factors such as
1.State of world capital markets
2.Long-dated interest rates (Discount rate)
3.Who the interested party is...Existing investor v Strategic investor v Offtaker v SuperFund.
4.Negotiating skills of the ARU team/Capital raisers
5.Needs/influence of their respective governments.
I personally always thought it was going to happen at around 30c but that was prior to the Sharemarket actions/SP manipulation of the past 12 months. Now if it gets away at around 20-24c the team will have done very well.
And yes
@TryingToRetire if the FCR is at 20c for A$1.2bil worth there will be 8.5bil SOI and in 2030 it will likely hit $0.70 and start paying a 2c dividend pa from 2032. Please understand fellow Shareholders that the MC of ARU after the FCR will be in excess of $1.7bil (20c x 8.5bil SOI) ARU will enter the ASX300 at first, and all going well during construction then rampup production this will become a Lynas 2.0, which has a current MC of approx $6.0bil (which by 2030 with the forecast increase in $kg for NdPr should be at least double that) so I can see a MC for ARU in excess of $6.0bil then (70-90c)
Dont forget Retail will be offered an Entitlement offer (1 for x shares owned) in this FCR and as I've mentioned before I have done the best in this company in the shares I have obtained at CR (or bought on-market at same/just below CR price). DC said Retail will be looked after, I can only assume that will be a discount to what BEOT is offered (but nothing is ever guaranteed)
As I've said it is IMHO you gotta do more research, and this is not one of those penny-dreadfuls that will suddenly fly, because it already has a MC of 400mil and needs a stack of New Equity ($1.2bil) that current shareholders just cant provide the whole lot, so dilution is real (I had hoped for a smaller amount of New Equity once the Debt package was going well, but reading the presentations the 50:50 goal is fixed in stone, and probably managements hands are tied to having to do this...debt contract conditions etc)
PS it might fly if somehow the NdPr suddenly flys, but I think we are all realists, and China's control of that price....you know)
This is a long game and iMHO probably would have been best for this Project to have been bought by a Private Company or FedGovt years ago and taken if off-ASX.
Like I said.....this style of thinking is not good for my Mental Health.....it just saddens me.... and affects my work. Ciao tutti. Next update from me will likely be when FCR is announced. None of this is Financial Advice and you can see I still Hold (prob too many) and would still advise my best mate to buy, but don't expect this to go to the moon, but one day 10+yrs away it will be a 10-bagger.
All IMVHO, DYOR (cause I have), GLTA(patient)LTH "Build it they will come for more" LTH over 1.0mil but less than 5.0 mil shares.
(20min delay)