I lot of assumptions there. Here are some alternate assumptions from a different angle.
Should AVZ proceed with Arbitration and Zijin don't run away beforehand, I'm assuming the DRC Gov have armed AVZ with everything they need to squash Zijin, including the IGF report, supporting documents from the Minister of Mines and most likely a lot more.
The political issues around all of this do not just concern AVZ, the DRC has a balancing act here with existing Chinese interests in the country, (can't just wipe the lot of them overnight) including the embarrassing front page news inside the DRC around Cominiere (a state owned entity) with 6 Directors/Ministers being involved in fraud, corruption and bribery.
I suggest AVZ and the DRC Government has agreed to share the clean up process so not one party carries all of the process and takes all of the heat.
It may be agreed by AVZ (who are fully armed with all necessary documentation from the DRC Gov) to take on the responsibility of squashing Zijin in Arbitration, while various authorities within the DRC Government clean up Cominiere, Dathomir and even replace the corrupt Governor of Tanganjika which occurred last week.
Further conjecture or assumptions could be made that Zijin have already been squashed in the DRC itself over their Dathcom claims, particularly as the IGF report on Zijiin and Cominiere's activities was completed a couple of months ago now.
The DRC Gov probably think they have already done most of the heavy lifting concerning issues with Zijin and have sorted everything out to their satisfaction. Obviously the DRC Gov can't stop someone like Zijin requesting an Australian company enter into Arbitration, however, I think there is a little more at play here than some people might think.
Assuming Zijin have been taken care of behind closed doors in the DRC, one could ask, why wouldn't the DRC Gov announce that Zijin's claims have been squashed?
Well it could be as simple as the DRC Gov wanting to play down the matter for political reasons and are happy enough that the dirty laundry has been taken care of behind closed doors. Let's fact it, there are Chinese interests everywhere in country and there has likely been some serious lobbying by China not to publicly lambast Zijin any further. Zijin have likely providing some specific undertakings or other considerations being caught red handed by the Inspector General active in fraud and bribery.
There has been a lot of press around this matter "in country" and I would not be surprised if for political balancing interests the DRC Gov does not make any more announcements on Zijin than has already occurred. Because......now in steps AVZ to assist in their part of the clean up process and takes care of Zijin publicaly via Arbitration.
Arbitration likely being the only avenue left for Zijin to take, particularly if they have been dealt with appropriately behind closed doors in the DRC as described, which is highly likely, otherwise, why Arbitration?
After Zijin fail at Arbitration they can at least tell their shareholders they did everything they could to protect their "so called" interests, (bla bla bla)
For the assumptions made above, Arbitration between Zijin and AVZ could be the perfect way to close out this matter with AVZ having the full support of the DRC Gov of course. Thereafter the status quo around ownership of Manono as reported by AVZ will be preserved for all to see, Zijin walks away with its tail between its legs, the DRC can make an example of how corruption and bribery does not work and not one group has all Zijin's blood on their hands.
Although I'm pretty sure the Inspector General has paid a visit to a few of the former Directors/Ministers of Cominiere, I don't think that guy takes many prisoners
Anyway, this is just a bunch of alternate assumptions to consider. DYOR and GLTAH
Cheers BJ
AVZ Price at posting:
78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
